Diesel price could rise in the coming days to 9.4-9.6 lei per litre, and some filling stations may temporarily run out of fuel stocks amid tensions on the international oil market, large price differences between networks and precautionary refuelling, warns the President of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI), Dumitru Chisalita.
"The 1 May holiday comes with price increases and a potential local shortage, which should alert those travelling. It is not a question of whether diesel will become more expensive, but how quickly. The oil market has re-entered a risk zone and the effects are already being felt in the pockets of Romanian drivers. Brent crude is stuck at around 110 dollars per barrel, pushed up not by a booming economy but by instability and fear. The realistic range for the coming days - 106 to 116 dollars - says it all. The market is no longer about balance but about nerves. And nerves cost," the expert says in an analysis called "Diesel and petrol rise again - Romania pays the bill for global tensions."
According to him, although the price does not track oil perfectly, "the direction is upwards."
In his view, there is also a better scenario. If external tensions were to ease suddenly and oil prices correct, prices could stagnate or even fall slightly, although this scenario is becoming increasingly fragile.
According to the analysis, what is happening in Romania does not resemble a classic supply crisis but "a market thrown off balance by regulated prices, large differences between networks, consumption panic and logistics unable to absorb the shock."
The Government introduced a cap on commercial mark-ups, mandatory reporting and export restrictions, measures in force until 30 June, precisely to control the market shock, the document also mentioned.
"Such interventions have a side effect: they compress margins, change company behaviour and can make distribution more rigid. Operators no longer compete freely; they protect their stocks, cash flow and replacement risk at higher prices. This is where the Romanian paradox comes from: the state tries to keep prices under control, companies try not to lose money, consumers panic, and the result is exactly what you see now - diesel existing in the system, but no longer reaching the pump evenly," the AEI president mentioned.
According to the quoted source, the fuel market is operating without sufficient reserves and any imbalance can quickly lead to diesel shortages at the pump.
"Rompetrol is now entering the same logic. If shortages also appear at the second major player, we can no longer speak only of a Petrom accident. We are talking about a market operating at its limit, where any price difference, any logistical delay or any wave of refuelling can empty entire stations. Romania is not necessarily out of diesel. Romania is out of buffer. The market no longer has elasticity. And when a market without a buffer is hit by geopolitics, price caps, nervous demand and large price gaps, the first victim is not the refinery, but the pump," Chisalita added.
