The annual inflation rate is expected to continue its pronounced upward trend up to mid next year, and implicitly will rise above the target interval and values previously predicted, mainly as an effect of the ample increases anticipated to be noted in the price of energy products in Q4 2021 and Q1 2022, shows the National Bank of Romania (BNR), in a release.
According to the BNR, important sources of uncertainty and risks remain, at the same time, the conduct of fiscal policy, as well as the absorption of European funds, with priority of those referring to the Next Generation EU programme, including in the context of the political crisis, given, among others: the unknowns regarding the second budget revision this year and the coordinates of the budget draft for 2022, which would attest the acceleration in perspective of the fiscal consolidation, according to the commitments assumed in the context of the excessive deficit procedure; the legal and technical procedures that must be finalized to obtain pre-financing from funds coming from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), together with the targets and benchmarks that condition the receiving of later tranches of financing.
Wave four of the pandemic and the restrictive measures associated continue, also, to generate uncertainties and great risks on predictions, especially in near perspective, in the context of the grave public health crisis provoked internally and the potential implications on economic activity and the labor market, but also on the backdrop of its extension in other European states, strongly affected by the energy crisis and the persistence of blockages in production and supply chains.
BNR mentions that it is monitoring carefully the developments of the internal and international environment and is ready to use the instruments at its disposal in view of fulfilling the fundamental objective regarding the stability of prices on the medium-term.