The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator produced by the CFA Romania Association dropped 4.8 points this June to 54.2 points, and exchange rate expectations see the domestic leu losing ground to the euro, down to a rate of 5.0438 RON for one euro; over a 12-month horizon, the inflation rate is seen at 8.21 percent, the association said in a release on Wednesday.
"Amid a high budget deficit and expectations for a rise in indirect taxes, confidence in the economy has slumped. Consistent with this evolution, a certain return of inflationary expectations is noticeable. Thus, both the anticipated inflation for the next 12 months and the three-month ROBOR interest rate are higher on a year-over-year basis. Also, as an additional tax leads to a drop in demand, expectations of economic growth have gone down compared to the previous year," said vice-president of the CFA Romania Association Adrian Codirlasu.
As far as the evolution of urban residential properties is concerned, 50 percent of the participants anticipate a decrease, while 31.3 percent of the survey respondents expect them to remain stable in the next 12 months. Also, 68 percent consider that the current prices are overvalued, while 25 percent say they are correct.
The government budget deficit anticipated for this year is 5.5 percent, and real GDP growth expectations have shrunk compared to the previous issue of the survey to 2.5 percent. The public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 55 percent in the next 12 months.
The CFA Romania Association is one of the 160+ member societies of the CFA Institute, having as a mission promoting the interests of investment specialists and maintaining high standards of integrity and professional excellence.
Currently, the CFA Romania Association has over 250 members, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) certification. The CFA community also includes approximately 100 candidates for various CFA exam levels. AGERPRES