Romania could record an economic growth of 4-5 pct next year, but it needs to keep budget spending "tight", said, for AGERPRES, Daniel Daianu, chairman of the Fiscal Council and coordinator of the convergence analysis report "Romania - Eurozone, Monitor."
"If we do not make the mistake of destabilizing the public budget by irrational decisions and we do not provoke a crisis of the leu, and the pandemic is kept under control, we could have an economic growth of 4-5 pct in the year to come. But we need to keep budget spending tight. Decisions that will cause a great suffering to people not long from now must be avoided. Especially because the pandemic is not defeated and the economic crisis will have persistent effects, deep scars, even if the recovery is felt since the third quarter of this year. And the belief of some that the BNR [National Bank of Romania] can keep the situation under control regardless of the going of politics is naive. A great depreciation of the leu as a solution to the foreign imbalance is very risky, with major undesirable effects; just as a great increase of monetary policy, with increased interest rates. Our big problem is on the budget part. The public budget mustn't be played in politics' roulette!", said Daniel Daianu, when asked about the evolution of the economy in 2021.
The chairman of the Fiscal Council has detailed what is in view by extending the taxation base, idea presented in the mentioned report.
"It's the application of the current fiscal regime on tax payers who, for various reasons, do not pay the taxes and duties they should; it involves shedding light on as much as possible of the underground economy. This demarche requires rich, transparent information, the declaration of all incomes and wealth. In any normal state it's as such and it has nothing to do with ideology. It's stupid to say that the declaration of incomes and wealth is socialist in nature. The extension is demanded by a fair system, which does not divide citizens in two categories: the right ones and those who elude the system. Another reasoning regards the very low incomes of the budget. We should also collect much better if we are to think of tax evasion and fiscal optimization, if we are to look at how much we lose on VAT and others. There are many exceptions too. The public budget could have fiscal income representing 30 pct of the GDP in a few years. Our neighbors in transition after 1989 have fiscal revenues between 32 pct and 38 pct of the GDP, we have below 27 pct. The digitization of ANAF [National Tax Administration Agency] would help a lot," Daniel Daianu said.
The report "Romania - Eurozone, Monitor" no. 4 with the topic "Romania and the European Union in times of pandemic" was coordinated by member of the Romanian Academy Daniel Daianu. The working group was formed by Amalia Fugaru, Gabriela Mihailovici, Bogdan Moinescu, Ioana Muntean, Iulian Panait, Mirela Roman, Bogdan Stoian, with Csaba Balint and Clara Volintiru as guests.