Uncertainties at the global level in the context of the multitude of geopolitical events and the deterioration of internal macroeconomic balances are the two most important systemic risks, classified as severe, to financial stability, according to the Financial Stability Report of the National Bank of Romania (BNR).
"The main risks to financial stability in Romania remained at high levels, relatively similar compared to the previous Report and to the risk assessments at the European level, in the context of maintaining multiple uncertainties at the global level, both as a result of the escalation of geopolitical tensions and the intensification of armed conflicts, as well as against the background of an important election year on the international level, able to change the mix of policies implemented at the level of the main economies of the world internally, the growth of economic activity has remained at moderate levels, and the deepening of the twin deficits remains the most important risk factor. In this context, the two most important systemic risks, classified at severe, are: the uncertainties at the global level in the context of the multitude of events geopolitical, with the outlook of their accentuation in the next period and the deterioration of internal macroeconomic balances", the Report says.
According to the document, to the two systemic risks of a severe level are added two other systemic risks, of a moderate level, namely the risk of non-payment of loans contracted by the non-governmental sector and the risk associated with challenges to cyber security and financial innovation.
The BNR mentions that, at the global level, the challenges to financial stability recorded mixed developments. On the one hand, the disinflationary process continued in most economies, including without substantial decreases in economic activity (soft landing), supporting the appetite for risk on the international financial markets. On the other hand, the external context continues to be characterized by modest prospects for economic growth, especially at the European level, as well as by a high degree of uncertainty.
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