The sustainable solution for bringing down fuel prices in Romania is not a large general cut in VAT at the pump, but a targeted, temporary reduction triggered only when the price or production costs pass certain thresholds, according to Chairman of the Smart Energy Association (AEI) Dumitru Chisalita.
"The essential problem is not only whether they can be cut, but where, how much and when, so that the measure does not affect other obligations of the state, such as the payment of pensions, wages and other essential public expenditures. At the same time, the intervention must be designed in such a way that it does not produce irreversible negative effects on agriculture and the economy (...) Simply said, the objective is to identify where, how much and when the state can reduce the excise duty or VAT on fuel, so that the positive effect on agriculture and the economy is the highest, and the cost to the budget remains bearable, without jeopardising pensions, wages and other mandatory public expenditures. In Romania, the sustainable solution is not a large general cut in VAT at the pump, but a targeted, temporary reduction triggered only when the price or production costs pass certain thresholds. That is because the 2026 budget is already tense, and the target deficit is 6.2% of GDP," the specialist said in an analysis to AGERPRES on Monday.
He said that excise tax revenues are very important for the budget, and in the first two months of 2026 VAT and taxes on energy products increased from the previous year. In Chisalita's view, these increases are the main target that must be attacked and returned to consumers.
The specialist analysis highlights that there is a need for a decision model that rigorously establishes where the reduction should be applied, how much it can be reduced, without destabilising the budget, and when it an intervention should occur, so that the measure helps the economy instead of unbalancing it.
"Such a model should start from the current fiscal reality in Romania of the standard VAT rate being 21%, and fuels being taxed at this rate. In addition, excise duties on fuels remain an important source of government revenue. At the same time, the 2026 budget is already built under pressure, with a programmed deficit and high rigid spending, which means that any generalised reduction must be analysed very carefully. In practice, the right question is not to reduce or not to reduce?' but what is the optimal combination of tax reduction, protecting sensitive sectors and maintaining a balanced budget? For that reason, the model should clearly distinguish between general discounts, applied to all consumers, which cost the budget a lot; targeted measures, applied where fuel directly affects the cost of production and transport, especially in agriculture and logistics. Romania is already using such schemes targeted in 2026, both for diesel from agriculture and for compensation from transport," according to the AEI expert.
Data presented by Chislita show that in 2026, the excise duties are approximately RON 3,059.80 /1,000 litres for unleaded gasoline, and RON 2,804.29 /1,000 litres of diesel fuel.
He adds that, theoretically, Romania cannot lower the standard excise duties below the European Union (EU) minimums, i.e. EUR 359 (RON 1,827)/1,000 litres for unleaded gasoline and EUR 330 (RON 1,679)/1,000 litres of diesel fuel.
"That means, very practically, that there are only three real and effective instruments at the government's disposal to immediately reduce prices: general VAT at the entire pump, general excise duty at the entire pump, targeted reimbursement/compensation schemes for sensitive sectors and vulnerable groups. The best ratio between the economic effect and the budgetary cost is usually the third instrument. Romania uses exactly this logic, for carriers there is compensation of RON 0.65 bani/litre between January 1 and March 31, 2026 and RON 0.85 /litre between April 1 and December 31, 2026. For agriculture, the government approved in 2026 a budget of RON 620 million for a diesel fuel scheme, and the amount of reimbursement is approximately RON 2.697 lei/litre," according to Chisalita.
Specifically, the AEI representative explains that, realistically and prudently, the general VAT can be reduced by a maximum of 1-2 percentage points, temporarily, and only in situations of severe shock. Also, another solution could be to cut the general excise duty, by RON 0.20/litre, which will produce, if the VAT effect on the excise duty is fully transmitted and included, a reduction at the pump of about RON 0.24/litre.
At the same time, the targeted reimbursements would represent a reliable option, but only for agriculture, haulage, public transport of people and, possibly, certain productive activities with high fuel intensity.
On March 26, the government approved an emergency ordinance declaring a crisis state between April 1 and June 30, 2026, in Romania's market for crude oil and petroleum products, gasoline and diesel fuel.
The new piece of legislation sets up measures to protect the economy and the public during the crisis situation. Thus, the markups levied by business operators that produce, import, distribute and/or sell gasoline, diesel fuel is capped at the average value of the 2025 markups levied by each business operator, with exports and intra-community deliveries being exempted.
At the same time, the ordinance introduces the possibility for business operators to reduce the biofuel content of the volumes of gasoline released to the market from 8% to a minimum of 2% for gasoline, for the time the protection measures are in place.
Finance Minister Alexandru Nazare said at the end of last week that drawing the emergency ordinance that will introduce a transparent mechanism for adjusting the excise duties on fuels is at an advanced stage. "This dynamic excise duty mechanism, which will be felt directly in moderating the increase in prices at the pump, is designed to respond directly to external shocks and to allow gradual adjustments, depending on the simultaneous increase in prices and international quotations," said Nazare.
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