The National Strategy and Forecast Commission (CNSP) expects a medium-term correction of the current account deficit, more pronounced in 2026, driven by budget deficit-reduction measures, weaker domestic demand, higher absorption of EU funds and improved external competitiveness of Romanian goods.
According to CNSP's 2026 - 2029 Spring Forecast, "the projections for an improvement in the balance of payments take into account a gradual recovery of the European and international context and a revival of external demand, which will stimulate trade and the services sector".
Romania's current account deficit stood at 5.34 billion in Q1 2026, down 13.3% from 6.15 billion in Q1 2025, mainly due to an 11.7% reduction in the goods trade deficit (FOB-FOB).
The adjustment was also supported by an improvement in the secondary income balance, which returned to positive territory (324 million surplus) thanks to higher receipts from international cooperation and increased remittances from Romanian workers abroad.
International trade in goods in Q1 2026 showed a slight correction of the trade imbalance, with exports up 1.1% to 23.8 billion, and imports down 1.7% to 31.5 billion.
Goods deliveries were supported 46.8% by machinery and transport equipment, which grew 2.9% year-on-year, and by the manufacturing industry, which accounted for 6.5 billion, or 27.2% of total exports (iron, steel, rubber, metal, wood excluding furniture, clothing and accessories, footwear, furniture and parts, measuring and control equipment, etc.).
Imports were dominated by automotive products and manufactured goods, representing 36.6% and 27.3% of total external purchases.
The trade balance (FOB-CIF) closed Q1 2026 with a 7.7 billion deficit, 9.3% below the level of Q1 2025, a value difference of 792.1 million, of which about 84% (662.5 million) came from the reduction of the extra-EU trade deficit.
Chemical products remained the main source of external imbalance, accounting for over 43% of the total loss, or 3.3 billion.
CNSP forecasts that the trade balance (FOB-CIF) will continue to deteriorate, reaching -31.7 billion in 2026; -32.2 billion in 2027; -33.4 billion in 2028; and -35.1 billion in 2029.
The current account balance is estimated at 26.8 billion (6.7% of GDP) in 2026; 26.4 billion (6.3% of GDP) in 2027; 26.9 billion (6.1% of GDP) in 2028; and 27.7 billion (6% of GDP) in 2029.
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