Romania's cigarette black market increased this July 2025 to 11.9% of total consumption from 10.1% in January, a five-year high, shows a Novel Research survey released on Wednesday.
"In a first time ever, the area most affected by the black market is the country southwest, with a significant increase by 10.6 percentage points (p.p.) compared to the previous report, to 18.4%. The northeastern region is back to an upward trend, having picked 5.2 p.p. to 17.4%. Another increase is visible in the southeast, +4.2 p.p. to 10.7%. By the source of black market products, Bulgaria holds the highest share with almost 35%, in a sharp rise by 11.1 p.p. compared to the previous survey, followed by duty free outlets with a share of 29.5%, and the Republic of Moldova with 15.9%, slightly down," said Novel Research managing partner Marian Marcu, told Agerpres.
BAT Legal and External Affairs Director for South East Europe Area Ileana Dumitru emphasized that the new developments in illicit trade, which have driven the cigarette black market to 11.9% of total consumption are worrying, and once again highlight the importance of economic and fiscal stability in deterring smuggling.
"According to the Stop Contrabanda platform, over 146 million contraband cigarettes have been seized so far, more than double the total amount seized last year. The efforts of the authorities are visible and remarkable, but it is essential to continue this collaboration, to invest in infrastructure and maintain a predictable fiscal framework, so as to protect the economy and effectively combat illicit trade," said Ileana Dumitru.
Antonio Vencesla, Corporate Affairs & Communications Director of JTI Romania, Moldova and Bulgaria, staid that the reason why Bulgaria has become the first source for black market products is the difference in cigarette taxation in the two countries.
"National and European tax policies should reflect Romania's economic, social and geographical realities, including purchasing power. In absence of a balanced approach, the significant increase in cigarette excise duties included in the draft Directive unveiled by the European Commission in July risks directly affecting Romanian consumers, who will be tempted to turn to smuggled products. This would harm budget revenues at a time when the deficit must be reduced. An increase in illicit trade to previous record highs of over 30% of the market could cause the state budget losses of around EUR 1.5 billion annually," Vencesla stated.
Roxana Pintea, External Affairs Director, Philip Morris Romania, argues that the percentage reported by Novel in July already exceeds the European average of around 10%, and the upward trend has been visible since the first months of the year.
"When significant gaps appear between tax regulations, consumers shift their behavior to where they find more accessible solutions, and illicit networks immediately jump at the opportunity. Our southern neighbour is only the most visible example. Therefore, clamping down on smuggling requires not just effective controls, but also coherent and predictable tax policies," said Pintea.
According to Gerald Tijssen, Country Director, Imperial Brands Romania, smuggling usually goes down in summer, but this did not happen this year, which is worrisome. "We hope it is caused by the petty border traffic of Romanians who prefer to buy various products for lower prices from Bulgaria; the neighboring country is also a transit area for tourists from north of the Danube. This is a significant jump in numbers, which should alert both the government and law enforcement authorities," Gerald Tijssen said.
On the other hand, president of the Romanian Customs Authority (AVR) Marcel Mutescu said that the institution will continue its efforts to combat illegal transports and boost border security, given that a third of illicit flows come from Bulgaria.
According to Border Police general inspector, quaestor Cornel-Laurian Stoica, approximately 2.8 million packs of cigarettes worth an estimated RON 46 million were confiscated in the first seven months of the year. Also, over 2,200 kilograms of loose tobacco and approximately 24 kilograms of processed tobacco were seized during the same period.
Director of the Economic Crime Investigation Department of the Romanian Police Inspectorate General, police chief Aurel Dobre, emphasized that 14 tobacco smuggling rings were dismantled and almost 60 million cigarettes plus more than 3 tons of tobacco were discovered in the first seven months of this year.
Major taxpaying tobacco companies funnel annually about RON 22 billion to the state budget in excise duties, VAT and other taxes and contributions.
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