Romania's economy sent a positive signal in June, with the annual inflation rate down to 10.4%, but this development is largely explained by the seasonal decrease in the prices of fruits, vegetables and eggs, according to an Akcenta analysis.
Romania's economy sent a positive signal in June, when the annual inflation rate fell from 10.9% in May to 10.4%, slightly exceeding analysts' initial estimates. Consumer prices remained practically unchanged from one month to the next, posting an increase of only 0.06%.
According to the latest macroeconomic analysis conducted by Raiffeisen Research, interpreted for the business sector by analysts Akcenta, the largest foreign exchange payment institution in Central and Eastern Europe, the decline is, to a large extent, a seasonal illusion. The main driver of this favourable result was the sudden collapse of volatile prices for fruits, vegetables and eggs, which fell by 4.2% month-on-month thanks to a solid summer harvest. On the other hand, regulated energy prices, which directly and permanently affect companies' operating costs, continued to rise, with electricity rising by 2.2% month-on-month and natural gas by 1.8%. A slight compensation can only be seen in the decrease in fuel prices, by 1.5%.
"The decrease in total inflation to 10.4% provides a positive signal on the market, but for small and medium-sized enterprises in Romania, this number hides a trap. If we look at core CORE 3 inflation, it has fallen only insignificantly, from 8.4% to 8.3%, and prices for processed foods in the core structure even accelerated by half a percentage point in June. Domestic cost pressures in the economy remain extremely strong due to weak household consumption dynamics. Entrepreneurs are faced with high input costs that, due to intense competition, they cannot fully transfer to the final prices, which progressively compresses their margins," according to Teofil Stanculea, commercial director of Akcenta for Romania.
The analysis underlines that, from a forecast perspective, although the analysis foresees a significant decrease in inflation to 5.7% in September and further down to 5.6% at the end of 2026, that does not mean an immediate relaxation for SMEs. The decrease is mainly driven by a basic statistical effect, by removing from the annual comparison the drastic increases in electricity prices in July 2025 and the increase in VAT rates in August 2025, which together added about 4.5 percentage points to inflation last year.
Real inflationary risks, also supported by a possible escalation of the Middle East conflict, remain high and core inflation will remain around 5.2% at the end of the year, the analysis shows.
Also, analysts claim that the SME sector in Romania cannot rely on a rapid cheapening of trade financing. The National Bank of Romania (BNR) will most likely keep its monetary policy rate unchanged at the high level of 6.5% for the rest of the year. Although current money market rates, such as the 3-month ROBOR at 5.84%, move slightly below the central bank's reference rate, their future evolution will be very context-sensitive. That will depend directly on political developments in the country and on the government's success with implementing fiscal consolidation.
"Fiscal consolidation and political stability will be the key factors that will influence the sentiment of foreign investors towards assets denominated in Romanian lei. If the government hesitates to implement reforms, there is a risk of capital outflows and strong pressure to depreciate the leu, which would trigger massive interventions by the central bank in the foreign exchange market. For Romanian importers and exporters among SMEs, this period of relative calm represents a window of opportunity. Proactive currency risk management - by setting future rates with hedging instruments - allows margins to be protected against the anticipated turbulence in the second half of the year," says Stanculea.
Akcenta CZ is a foreign exchange operator on the Czech and Central European markets, with a tradition of over 25 years. The company is also active in Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania. The client portfolio consists of more than 54,000 entities, most of them export or import oriented small and medium-sized enterprises.
