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CFA Romania's budget deficit projection at 7.4 pct of GDP this year

Piața Financiară
Adrian Codîrlașu, CFA

Financial analysts anticipate this year's budget deficit will be 7.4 percent of GDP and the inflation rate over a 12-month time horizon, specifically by February 2022, to be 2.58 percent, Romania's chartered financial analysts association CFA Romania said in a release, according to AGERPRES.

As regards the euro/leu exchange rate, over 88 percent of the survey participants anticipate a depreciation of the national currency in the next 12 months, with the average rate over a 6-month horizon standing at 4.9208 lei for one euro, and at 4.9742 lei for one euro in a 12-month horizon.

More questions have been added since April last year to the monthly survey conducted by CFA Romania regarding the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the national economy, and the results for December 2020 show that the majority of the respondents (over 51 percent) predict that the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic will be felt until the second quarter of 2022.

The average expectation for the GDP evolution in real terms in 2021 is +3.6 percent, while the public debt expressed as a percentage of GDP is seen reaching 51 percent over a 12-month horizon. The respondents also expect Romania's switch to the euro to happen in 2029.

"It is noteworthy that 63 percent of the survey participants consider property in large cities to be overpriced. Also, they expect a comeback of inflation, with 63 percent of the respondents projecting a rise in inflation in the next 12 months," the release states.

The CFA Romania Association's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased in January by 5.3 points from the previous month to 55.7 points, and dropped 8 points compared to the same month of the year before, due to the evolution of both its components.

"It is the third straight month of substantial increase in confidence in the economy and the fourth consecutive month of growth in the anticipation component of the indicator, with the evolution thereof being in line with that of its parameters," said CFA Romania vice president Adrian Codirlasu.

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