The average price of electricity offers for household consumers could reach RON 1.67 per kWh, including VAT, in the case of new offers for 12 months issued in the autumn of this year, up 22% from last autumn, estimates the Smart Energy Association (AEI).
The estimate was revised compared to the one made in August, amid the extension of the alert situation on the electricity market, as well as the forecasts on the price of gas and the exchange rate.
"For the new 12-month household offers, issued in the fall of 2026, AEI has reassessed the estimates made in August 2026 as a result of the extension of the alert situation on the electricity market well above the initial estimates and due to the forecast of the price of gas and the exchange rate, estimating an increase of approximately RON 0.25-0.50 kWh, VAT included, from the autumn of 2025," reads an analysis by AEI Chairman Dumitru Chisalita.
According to him, in the central scenario, the average price in future offers could reach approximately RON 1.67/kWh.
"Thus, an additional offer of RON 0.37/kWh compared to an existing average price of RON 1.30/kWh, would make the average price of future offers reach approximately RON 1.67/kWh, i.e. +22%. The analysis starts from the comparison of competitive offers in autumn 2025 with those for the next 12 months, in the same distribution area. I do not use as a basis the capped prices in the first half of 2025," says Chisalita.
He adds that OPCOM data indicated in the analysis show a strong increase in prices on the day-ahead market (PZU) in August and September.
OPCOM data confirm the strong increase in the price of the spot market in August, as the average PZU increased from RON 409.45/MWh in 2025 to RON 793.19/MWh in 2026, and in September from RON 506.05 to RON 917.36 MWh.
In the central estimate, the largest contribution to price increases comes from more expensive forward purchases and higher energy prices on the spot market.
Thus, for forward purchases, the analysis takes into account 65% of the energy and an illustrative increase in the cost from RON 650 to RON 850/MWh, with an impact of RON 0.157/kWh, representing 43% of the total increase. For the remaining 35% of the energy, purchased on the spot market, an average increase of approximately RON 214 /MWh is predicated over the future delivery period, with an impact of RON 0.091/kWh, or 25% of the estimated increase.
Adding up to this are the costs associated with the household consumption profile, intraday balancing and adjustments, recovery of losses from 2026, risk premiums, financing of guarantees and working capital, as well as transport, distribution and system services.
"All the contributions below are expressed with VAT, in lei/kWh invoiced. The values represent calculation assumptions; they are not published components of the suppliers' margin."
As far as network tariffs are concerned, the impact differs by distribution areas.
"The network tariffs have changed in 2026, but the impact is not identical in all areas. The increase of the extraction component of the transmission network from RON 33.03 to RON 36.45/MWh. The total contribution of RON 20/MWh used above remains a hypothesis and must be replaced by the exact tariffs of the analysed area," according to Chisalita.
The analysis presents three scenarios regarding the evolution of offers for household consumers. In the best case scenario, the increase is estimated at RON 0.25/kWh, up to a price of RON 1.55kWh, which would mean an increase of 16% and an additional cost of RON 50 per month for a usage of 200 kWh.
In the central scenario, the price would increase by RON 0.37/kWh to RON 1.67 /kWh, which is 22%, which would mean RON 74 more per month for a consumer with a usage of 200 kWh. In the tense scenario, the increase could reach RON 0.50/kWh and a price of RON 1.80/kWh and an increase of 27%, with the additional cost for the same usage at RON 100 per month.
The AEI chairman estimates that the central scenario is that of an increase in prices of about 22%.
"We estimate that there will be a central increase of about 22% over the offers in autumn 2025. The largest contribution comes from the renewal of wholesale purchases, about RON 0.25/kWh in this calculation. Loss recovery, additional risk premiums and financing add about RON 0.06/kWh," says Chisalita.
However, he draws attention to the fact that risk premiums included in the estimate should not be automatically cumulated.
"The risk premiums should not be added automatically, if the supplier already buys a product that covers its profile, imbalances or currency risk, the respective contributions are reduced. The table is a transparent estimate of the possible costs, not proof that each supplier will increase their offer by RON 0.37/kWh", says the AEI president.
Comentează