Attacks on commercial vessels in the Black Sea could put additional pressure on diesel prices in Romania by increasing insurance, transport and supply costs, in a market where oil product prices are already high, according to an analysis by Frames.
According to the quoted source, any sea transport involves standard cargo insurance, which under normal conditions costs between 0.2% and 0.5% of the value of the cargo, as well as an additional war-risk premium charged by insurers for conflict zones.
In the Black Sea, war-risk costs have risen significantly, analysts said.
"The situation had already worsened before the October attacks. In September, the London marine insurance market expanded the high-risk area to cover the entire Black Sea, except for the territorial waters of the coastal states. For a single seven-day voyage, war-risk premiums can add hundreds of thousands of dollars to the cost of a vessel. After drones also struck near a Romanian platform, it is hard to believe insurers will reduce these premiums," Frames Manager Adrian Negrescu said.
In the case of diesel, Frames estimates that the increase in insurance costs alone could add several bani to the price of a litre.
Economic data consulted by the company show that a tonne of diesel costs more than 1,600 USD on the international market. If insurance rises from 0.2-0.5% of the value of the goods to 1-2%, the additional cost is estimated at around 13-29 USD per tonne. As a tonne of diesel amounts to almost 1,200 litres, Frames calculates the impact at an additional 5-12 bani per litre from insurance alone, and around 6-15 bani including VAT.
Maritime risk is adding to rising oil product prices, the analysis also shows.
In the case of diesel, the Platts prices quoted in the analysis exceed 1,600 USD per tonne for standard diesel, almost double the 2024 level. Romania is exposed to these developments as domestic refinery output does not cover consumption and part of the country's diesel needs are met through imports.
"Essentially, the price of diesel has become at least partly decoupled from the price of crude oil. The price of a barrel of crude is no longer the only factor that matters. Available volumes, refined products and pressure on refining at global, regional and national level also matter. When supplies are scarce, every additional risk along the way is immediately reflected in the price," Adrian Negrescu said.
According to the analysis, at the beginning of October, diesel cost almost 11 lei per litre in major cities, while the excise duty cut, which helps limit the price, expires on 15 October. Without this measure, the price per litre would rise by around 85 bani, Frames analysts said.
They also warn of the potential effects of price interventions in a market with limited supply.
According to Frames, price caps or other interventions in a market where available supplies are limited could prompt importers and distributors to reduce deliveries if they can no longer cover their costs.
Adrian Negrescu believes the authorities should analyse both the situation in the Black Sea and the impact of taxes on fuel prices.
"It is essential for the new Government, regardless of who forms it - Luca Niculescu or another person designated by President Dan - to conduct a thorough analysis of the situation in the Black Sea and how taxes affect fuel prices in Romania. The way the state intervenes in the market needs to be reconsidered in order to curb the wave of inflation emerging on the horizon," Negrescu said.
Analysts say higher maritime transport costs could also feed through to other categories of goods and services via fuel prices.
The risk in the Black Sea is therefore translating into higher insurance and transport costs, which could subsequently be reflected in the prices of fuel, food, services and goods transported by road, the Frames analysis concluded.
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