The National Economic Forecast Board (CNP) is estimating a 5.7-percent increase in Romania's industrial output in the first quarter of 2018, mainly driven by a 13.5-percent increase in external market turnover.
According to the Q1 2018 Industry Trend Estimates based on business surveys, the internal market turnover is expected to advance 8.9 percent from Q1 2017. Given the circumstances, the total turnover should increase by 11 percent.
January-March 2018 compared with January-March 2017, the average number of employees is estimated to increase by 1.3 percent, while labour productivity in industry would increase by 4.4 percent.
Romania's finished goods inventory is expected to decline 4.8 percent in Q1 2018 from Q1 2017.
Data collected by the survey of business operators reveal that decreases in the majority of indicators should be expected in the first quarter of 2018 from the last quarter of 2017, with the exception of the external market turnover, the number of employees and the stock of finished goods.
"The overall industrial turnover is expected to decline 2.4 percent when seen against the previous quarter, driven by a plummeting turnover on the domestic market (-11.5 percent), while the turnover on the external market is expected to grow by 9.9 percent. Given an expected decline by 1.2 percent in the industrial output, the volume of finished goods inventory would increase by 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2018 from the previous quarter. The average number of employees is expected to increase by 0.9 percent this quarter, similar to the increase reported for the first quarter of 2017. Amidst a declining industrial output, a reduction in labour productivity by around 2 percent should be expected,' according to CNP.
The National Economic Forecast Board draws up quarterly business surveys in industry, also providing short-term forecasts based on the answers of interviewed business operators to questions about industrial production, orders, stocks and prices. The survey is conducted on a sample of business operators selected according to the financial reports submitted to the Finance Ministry and on a questionnaire, both of which are produced by CNP.
For the business surveys conducted in 2018 a sample of 497 industrial operators has been selected, which gives a survey rate of 12.91 percent and a coverage rate of about 72 percent.
AGERPRES .
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