Romania's economy is expected to rebound in 2027, when Gross Domestic Product is forecast to grow by 2.5%, according to a projection by a global credit-risk and business-information company operating in Southeast Europe, based on Eurostat data.
For 2026, GDP growth is estimated at only 0.2%, said Simone Mirani, managing director of CRIF Ratings, a credit-rating agency authorised in Europe under ESMA regulation.
Mirani noted that "Romania is going through a phase of macroeconomic adjustment, with GDP growth estimated at 0.7% in 2026, below the EU-27 average. This slowdown mainly reflects fiscal-consolidation measures and persistent inflationary pressures, factors that affect domestic demand and limit short-term economic dynamics. Despite more moderate short-term growth, these adjustments are expected to strengthen macroeconomic stability and support a gradual recovery, with GDP growth accelerating to 2.5% in 2027."
Inflation for the whole of 2026 is projected at 7.2%, signalling a slowdown in price increases toward year-end, combined with a base-effect shift starting in August. For 2027, ICAP CRIF forecasts an annual inflation rate of 3.9%, a significant decline from 2026.
"Statistical economic-analysis models allow us to estimate that efforts in 2026 to reduce the budget deficit will begin to show results in 2027 results that will be felt by consumers and the market, not only at the macroeconomic level. Prices will not fall, but their rate of increase will slow," said Theodoros Polydoros, executive director at ICAP CRIF.
According to the company, a healthy economic recovery will depend on a broader set of factors - including political and fiscal decisions - not only administrative measures.
CRIF Ratings is a credit-rating agency authorised in Europe under ESMA regulation and part of the CRIF Group.
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