An interview conducted by Dr. Adrian Leonard Mociulschi
Europe is experiencing one of its most challenging climate summers in recent memory. From exceptionally low water levels on the Danube and prolonged drought conditions to persistent heatwaves and mounting pressure on water, energy, and transport systems, questions are increasingly being asked about whether these events represent temporary extremes or signs of a deeper climatic shift.
In this interview, Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for the Climate, Copernicus Climate Change Service, explains what the latest observations and data reveal about the forces reshaping Europe's climate reality.
Adrian Leonard Mociulschi: The Danube is currently experiencing exceptionally low water levels that are affecting navigation, energy production, and water resource management across several European countries.
According to Copernicus data, what are the main meteorological and climatic factors responsible for the current exceptionally low water levels of the Danube?
Samantha Burgess: The exceptionally low water levels currently affecting the Danube are the result of a combination of prolonged drought and repeated heatwaves, occurring against a backdrop of long-term climatic change.
Our observations show that large parts of central and eastern Europe have experienced persistent rainfall deficits, unusually dry soils and well-below-average river flows during recent months.
Adrian Leonard Mociulschi: Climate scientists have warned that droughts and water stress may become more frequent in parts of Europe as global temperatures rise.
Do Copernicus data suggest that the current low water levels of the Danube represent a temporary extreme event, or are we observing a longer-term shift in the river's hydrological regime associated with climate change across the Danube Basin?
Samantha Burgess: This year's remarkably low Danube levels are an extreme event, but they are consistent with what climate science tells us to expect in a warming world: more frequent and more severe periods of drought and water stress.
Higher temperatures increase evaporation from soils and vegetation, reducing the amount of water available to sustain river flows during dry periods. At the same time, Europe is experiencing more frequent and intense heatwaves.
Not every year will resemble 2026, but the risk of low summer river flows across parts of Europe is increasing in a warming climate.
Adrian Leonard Mociulschi: Successive heatwaves and prolonged droughts have affected large parts of Europe, leading to exceptionally low river flows, pressure on water resources, disruptions to energy systems, and challenges for inland navigation.
Do Copernicus data suggest that the recent heatwaves observed across Europe are still within the range of historical variability, or do they represent a new climatic reality?
Samantha Burgess: Our data show very clearly that Europe is experiencing heat extremes that would have been far less likely in the climate of the past. Europe has warmed faster than any other continent, and this warming has shifted the baseline upon which weather events occur.
Individual heatwaves are still influenced by natural weather variability and atmospheric circulation patterns. However, the frequency, intensity and duration of heatwaves have increased significantly as the climate has warmed.
Over the past decade, heatwaves in Europe have become more frequent, intense, and persistent, reflecting a structural shift rather than natural variability. Events now last longer, occur earlier, and combine with drought and other stresses.
Adrian Leonard Mociulschi: The strong El Niño event of 2023-2024 occurred during a period of record global temperatures and widespread heatwaves, raising questions about the respective roles of natural climate variability and long-term climate change.
According to Copernicus data, how much of Europe's recent extreme heat can be attributed to El Niño, and how much reflects the long-term warming trend associated with climate change?
Samantha Burgess: El Niño operates on top of a much stronger long-term warming trend driven by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.
The reason recent El Niño events have produced such unprecedented global temperatures is that they are occurring in a climate that is already significantly warmer than it was decades ago. For Europe specifically, regional heatwaves are influenced primarily by local and regional weather patterns, such as persistent high-pressure systems, dry soils and atmospheric circulation anomalies.
El Niño can affect the broader global climate system, but it is not the dominant driver of individual European heatwaves. The long-term warming trend is the key factor increasing the likelihood and severity of extreme heat across the continent.
Adrian Leonard Mociulschi: Ms. Burgess, thank you for your time and for sharing these valuable insights with our readers. We would also like to thank the Copernicus team for their support in facilitating this interview.
Beyond the Heat
The Danube's retreating waters are more than a hydrological event. They are a reminder that nature is not a static backdrop to human history, but an active participant in it. As Europe adapts to a changing climate, the challenge is not only technological or economic. It is also cultural: learning to think beyond immediate crises and to imagine resilience not as an emergency response, but as a long-term civic and civilizational project.
The Danube does not speak in words. This summer, it spoke through absence.
An interview conducted by Dr. Adrian Leonard Mociulschi
