Average gross wage is projected to increase by 5.8% in 2026, reaching 9,217 lei, which represents a moderate growth amid measures aimed at balancing wage expenditure, however, real earnings are expected to remain in negative territory, reflecting the interaction between moderate nominal wage growth and price dynamics, according to the 2026-2029 Macroeconomic Forecast published by the National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting (CNSP).
"Wage adjustments in 2026 will be tempered by the need for fiscal balance and inflationary pressures. The competitive sector will make a positive contribution to average earnings through employee retention in key industries, while the public sector will remain at its December 2025 level. Real earnings will remain in negative territory, reflecting the interaction between moderate nominal wage growth and price dynamics. Although adjustments to the gross minimum wage will provide a favourable boost to disposable incomes, the impact on purchasing power will remain limited," the Note accompanying the forecast informed, agerpres reports.
For 2026, the CNSP projects average gross earnings to rise by 5.8% to 9,217 lei, representing moderate growth amid measures aimed at balancing wage expenditure.
In 2027, earnings could post a balanced recovery above inflation, dependent on the success of fiscal consolidation efforts and a reduction in inflationary pressures.
In the competitive sector, the pace will vary: competitive industries will continue to attract workers with attractive wages, while traditional sectors will follow more cautious trends, influenced by labour costs.
Over the medium term, the average annual growth rate of gross earnings is projected at 5.9%, consistent with an increase in purchasing power of around 2.6%. Earnings are expected to follow a generally favourable trend, albeit at a more cautious pace and differentiated across professional categories, according to the CNSP experts.
Starting with the second half of 2025, Romania's labour market has been characterised by a general slowdown in hiring and increased caution among employers amid an uncertain economic climate, with estimates for the average number of employees in 2026 indicating a decline of around 28,000 people, leading to an increase in the ILO unemployment rate to 6.3%.
The year 2026 began with a significant reduction in the number of employees, down by 60,000 people in the January-March period compared with the same period in 2025, with the largest decline of over 50,000 coming from industry, which remains a key sector. The average number of employees stands at 6,670,000, with an estimated increase of 0.6% in 2027 to 6,710,000, 1.1% in 2028 to 6,784,000 and 0.7% in 2029 to 6,830,000.
This year, total employment stands at 7,655,000 people, down 0.5% compared with 2025.
Over the medium term, according to the forecast, the labour market is expected to follow a positive trajectory, offering improved prospects for all wage categories. Between 2027 and 2029, total employment is projected to grow at an average rate of 0.4%.
Within this, the number of employees is expected to increase at a rate of 0.8%, while other categories of employed persons, mainly self-employed workers, are set to see a marginal adjustment.
The ILO unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline slightly, reaching 5.3% at the end of the forecast horizon, from 5.5% in 2028, 5.9% in 2027 and 6.3% in 2026.
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