Debt levels among Romania's real estate developers have surpassed RON 35 billion in recent months, double the amount recorded a decade ago, while more than 60% of companies in the sector are now at high risk of insolvency, according to an analysis by consultancy company Frames.
Using data from the Trade Registry and the Finance Ministry, the report shows that out of 7,300 firms registered under NACE code 4110 (real estate development), 564 have entered dissolution over the past two years, 310 suspended activity and 57 went insolvent. Based on the Altman Z-score, over 2,700 companies currently face high or very high insolvency risk, with another 1,600 in the medium-risk category.
Debt accumulation is the sector's main vulnerability. Claims in the real estate industry rose from RON 26.8 billion in 2020 to RON 33.2 billion in 2024, and preliminary estimates indicate that total liabilities exceeded RON 35 billion in 2025, compared with RON 15.1 billion in 2015. Net losses also widened, reaching RON 610 million in 2024.
The market is dominated by small players: of the 7,300 active developers, 6,830 are SRLs, only 81 are joint-stock companies, and 263 operate as PFA sole proprietorships - a structure that Frames says leaves the sector highly exposed to shocks. Turnover has contracted sharply, from RON 7.55 billion in 2022 to RON 6.4 billion in 2024, while net profit fell by more than RON 300 million in the same period.
A direct consequence of falling sales is the surge in unsold housing stock, which reached a record RON 10 billion in 2025, up from RON 7.5 billion in 2022 and just RON 1.5 billion ten years ago. The situation is most acute in Bucharest, where more than 2,300 of the 3,000+ active developers are classified as high-risk.
The report notes that the VAT increase on new homes from 9% to 21% has further strained the market, especially since over 80% of apartments sold in Romania fall into the small-unit category.
Despite the financial stress, official forecasts still show resilience on the construction side: the National Commission for Strategy and Forecasting expects construction volumes to grow 9% in 2025 and 4% in 2026, with new building works and infrastructure also rising.
Frames argues that fiscal changes will likely reshape the market, leaving only large, well-capitalized developers able to continue, while smaller firms "may need rescuing". Investment funds are expected to play a bigger role, shifting many future projects toward build-to-rent models amid rising rental prices.
The analysis is based on financial data for companies active under NACE code 4110.
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