The International Monetary Fund projects a 1% growth rate for Romania's economy in 2025 and of 1.4% in 2026, down from its spring estimates of 1.6% and 2.8%, respectively.
"The IMF expects the economy to grow gradually, to a moderate level, on the back of fiscal consolidation. Romania's GDP is projected to grow by 1.0 and 1.4 percent in 2025 and 2026, respectively, as the acceleration of NGEU-funded investments program would partly offset a moderation in private consumption resulting from temporarily high inflation and the effects of fiscal consolidation. Headline inflation is expected to remain elevated over the next 12 months before falling within the BNR's tolerance band by the end of 2026," the report presented at the end of the IMF mission's visit to Romania reads.
The IMF estimates that the risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside for growth and to the upside for inflation.
At the same time, the international financial institution signals that a sovereign credit rating downgrade remains a risk as concerns persist regarding the execution of the planned fiscal consolidation for 2025-26 and the medium-term sustainability of public finances due to the still high fiscal deficit. Slower growth among major trading partners - potentially coupled with higher trade barriers, uncertainty, and an intensification of regional conflicts - could dampen trade and FDI flows.
The upside risks to inflation include higher energy prices and adverse climate shocks affecting food prices. Stronger-than-expected wage growth, possibly driven by temporarily high headline inflation, could delay the projected normalization of core inflation, the IMF warns.
In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report released in April 2025, the International Monetary Fund worsened its estimates for Romanian economic growth this year from 3.3% as forecast in October, to 1.6%. For 2026, a growth of 2.8% was estimated.
Regarding inflation, the IMF forecast is that Romania will see an average annual price increase of 4.6% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026.
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