The National Prognosis Commission (CNP) revised downwardly to 4.5 pct its projection for economic growth this year, from 5.5 pct, the value put forth in the previous prognosis issued in July.
Furthermore, also dropping (by 0.2 percentage points) was the estimate for the year 2019, down to 5.5 pct, from 5.7 pct as the previous prognosis said. For the next three years, the figures referring to the advance of the GDP remained unmodified at 5.7 pct in 2020 and 5 pct in 2021 and 2022.
In what regards inflation, the CNP maintained at 3.5 pct the forecasts referring to the Consumer Price Index for the end of the current year, but also those that regard the coming years, namely 2.8 pct in 2019, 2.5 pct in 2020, 2.3 pct in 2021, and 2.2 pct in 2022.
According to the medium term prognosis 2018-2022 - the 2018 autumn edition, final consumption will steady its growth this year, at 5.1 pct, as compared to 8.4 pct last year, dropping from 5.4 pct which was the figure the CNP indicated in July of the current year.
In what regards the commercial balance, the figures are on the rise in the autumn edition, indicating in 2018 an increase of FOB exports by 9 pct compared to last year (8.7 pct in the July prognosis), but also CIF imports by 9.7 pct, over the estimates of July of 9.4 pct.
Forecasts regarding the current account deficit are also modified: 3.5 pct of the GDP (as compared to 3.1 pct in the July prognosis), and the deficit is to drop to 3.2 pct of the GDP in 2019, 2.9 pct of the GDP in 2020, 2.6 pct of the GDP in 2021, and 2.4 pct of the GDP in 2022.
Estimates regarding the average exchange rate maintained at 4.65 RON per euro for this year, to drop to 4.62 RON/euro next year, 4.60 RON/euro in 2020, 4.58 RON/euro in 2021, and 4.56 RON/euro in 2022.
In its turn, the European Commission revised, on Thursday, with a significant drop, estimates referring to the economic growth of Romania in 2018, from 4.5 pct to 3.6 pct, while in 2019 it forecasts an advance of 3.8 pct as compared to 3.9 pct - the estimate this spring, according to the autumn economic forecasts published by the Community's executive.
In what regards inflation the EC revised upwardly to 4.3 pct the prognosis for 2018, as compared to 4.2 pct - the forecast this spring, with the CPI to go down to 3.5 pct in 2019 and 3.3 pct in 2020, following a weaker internal demand.
The government deficit is forecast to rise to 3.3 pct of the GDP in 2019, up from 2.9 pct of the GDP in 2017, and will continue the trend to reach 3.4 pct of the GDP in 2019 and 4.7 pct in 2020.
AGERPRES .
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