Annual inflation rate, up to 3.8pct in November

The annual inflation rate rose to 3.8pct in November this year, from 3.4pct in October, when foodstuffs increased by 4.9pct, the non-food goods by 2.83pct, and the price of services registered an advance of 4.19pct, according to the data published by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) on Wednesday. 

"Consumer prices in November 2019 compared to November 2018 increased by 3.8pct. The annual rate calculated on the basis of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) is 3.7pct. The average rate of consumer prices in the last 12 months (December 2018 - November 2019) compared to the previous 12 months (December 2017 - November 2018), calculated on the basis of the CPI [consumer price index], is 3.8pct. Determined on the basis of the HICP, the average rate is 3.8pct," according to the INS. 

The National Bank of Romania (BNR) has dropped to 3.8pct the inflation forecast for the end of this year and estimates an inflation of 3.1pct for the end of next year, announced on 8 November BNR Governor Mugur Isarescu, who presented the quarterly report on inflation. The BNR estimated in August 2019 an inflation of 4.2pct by the end of this year and of 3.4pct for December 2020. 

The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP) estimates, in the Autumn Forecast 2019 published on 27 November, that the disinflation process will continue due to the exhaustion of the demand for consumption, and the average annual inflation will reach 2.6pct in 2023, from 3.8pct in 2019. 

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised upwards the estimates on consumer prices in Romania this year, up to an average annual growth of 4.2pct, compared to a 3.3pct advance expected in the spring, while in 2020 prices would rise by 3.3pct, compared to a 3pct increase as estimated in the spring.