Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan stated that Romania will definitely register a slight increase in inflation in 2026, given the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
He made this statement after being asked if there is currently an estimate for inflation for 2026, in the context of the crisis on the fuel market.
"I wouldn't want to make estimates like this, because if, hypothetically, in a week, two, three, things calmed down in the Gulf and this very important global value chain, the transport of crude oil and its derivatives through the Strait of Hormuz, were to resume, it means that the effects would be small. If things drag on, in the context in which this crisis continues, certainly, the data may differ quite a lot, but, certainly, we will have a slight increase in inflation. The faster this crisis is resolved, the smaller the impact will be, the longer things drag on, the greater the impact, unfortunately," Ilie Bolojan declared on Digi24 on Monday evening.
The Prime Minister explained that inflation estimates will be influenced by developments on the international fuel market, not just those in Romania.
"The side effects of such situations, whether we like it or not, have negative results in the inflation area, any increase in fuel prices, by 10%, by 20%, inevitably impacts various chains, because everything that is transported is based on fuel and all goods are transported, so it has an aggregate effect, slightly, and inflation estimates will probably be slightly affected by what is happening, not just in Romania, but throughout the world, because the effects are everywhere," said Bolojan.
He added that the blockages in the energy market would also have effects in agriculture.
"Also, due to the fact that these blockages have created serious problems on the cost component for fertilizers for agriculture, where raw materials that are used, such as naphtha, a derivative of crude oil, have increased greatly, we have a 20-30% increase in fertilizer prices, which will inevitably, in an indirect way, move into an increase in product prices in summer, in autumn, everything that means what is sown this spring will have slightly higher prices, due to the increase in the prices of these inputs for agriculture", explained Bolojan.
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