The Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) is leading in Romanians' voter intention for the parliamentary election, according to the Informat.ro Barometer - INSCOP Research, the seventh edition, released on Wednesday.
According to the poll data, 40.9% of voters would vote AUR, 18.2% the Social Democratic Party (PSD), 13.5% the National Liberal Party (PNL) and 11.7% would pick the Save Romania Union (USR).
On a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means that they will surely not go out to vote and 10 surely do, 22.4% of Romanians chose 1, 1.3% chose 2, 1% chose 3.2% chose 4, 3.5% chose 5, 1.3% chose 6, 1.9% chose 7.3, 2% said 8, 2.6% said 9 and 58.4% said 10. At the same time, 2.3% do not know or do not answer the question.
Compared with those who expressed their preference for a party on the list, regardless of whether they say that they would vote or not (72% of the total sample), 40.9% of voters would vote AUR (as against 38% in November, 40% in October, 40.8% in September, 40.5% in June, 38.1% in May 2025).
According to the poll, 18.2% would vote PSD (as against 19.5% in November, 17.6% in October, 17.9% in September, 13.7% in June, 17.4% in May 2025), 13.5% PNL (as against 14.6% in November, 14.8% in October, 15.2% in September, 17.3% in June, 16% in May 2025).
As many as 11.7% of respondents would vote USR (as against 12.3% in November, 11.5% in October, 12.8% in September, 13.1% in June, 12.2% in May 2025).
The Hungarian Democratic Union of Romania (UDMR) would be elected by 4.9% of voters (as against 4.8% in November, 5.2% in October, 4% in September, 5.2% in June, 4.5% in May 2025).
The Health, Education, Nature, Sustainability Party (SENS) would garner 3.4% of the votes (as against 3.2% in November, 3.4% in October, 2.1% in September, 2.4% in June 2025).
The Party of Young People (POT) would be elected by 1.5% of voters (as against 3.1% in November, 2.6% in October, 3.3% in September, 4.2% in June 2025)
SOS Romania would receive 2.8% (as against 1.7% in November, 2% in October, 2.8% in September, 1.9% in June 2025).
The poll also shows that 1.1% of voters would vote another party (as against 1.8% in November, 1.6% in October, 0.6% in September, 0.5% in June 2025), 2% and express their preference for an independent (1% in November, 1.3% in October, 0.6% in September, 1.4% in June 2025).
The poll data were collected between January 12-15 using the CATI method (telephone interviews) on a sample of 1,100 people. The poll carries an error margin of ą 3%, at a confidence level of 95%.
The Informat.ro Barometer - INSCOP Research is a monthly opinion poll conducted by INSCOP Research on a commission from the news platform Informat.ro in partnership with the think-tank Strategic Thinking Group bringing to the public attention subjects of interest in order to stimulate national conversations on various subjects and public policies essential for the present and future of Romania, starting from the opinion of Romanians in partnership with prestigious think tanks and academic institutions.
INSCOP Research Director Remus Stefureac, estimates that the voting intention ratio between the ruling parties (cumulative score of 48.3%) and the parliamentary opposition parties (cumulative score of 45.8%) tends to balance out at the beginning of 2026 and against the background of the fact that AUR returns to a voting intention of over 40%, after a setback at the end of 2025, when it had reached 38%.
"However, the rigorous analysis of the evolution of voter intention in the last nine months (from May 2025 to January 2026) reflects a remarkable stability for all parties, with the variations from month to month being small and rare. That shows that the parties do not win, but do not lose significantly, despite a period marked by tensions caused by developments in key areas such as economy/prices, fiscal policy/taxes, foreign affairs, justice or security/war risks. For the time being, we are in a rigid political status quo that discourages breaks in rhythm and major political crises," Stefureac is quoted as saying in a post on the INSCOP website.
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