The National Bank of Romania anticipates that the annual inflation rate will rise to 7.7% at the end of the first trimester of 2024, going down to 6.8% at the end of the second quarter of next year, according to the Quarterly Report on Inflation, November 2023 edition.
"The projected values of the annual IPC inflation rate for the end of 2023 and the next year are 7.5% and 4.8%, respectively. Compared to the August 2023 Report, the forecast is similar for the end of this year, but higher during the coming year, mainly as a result of the increases in fees and taxes from January 1. On the other hand, for the first part of 2025, slightly lower values than previously projected are expected, especially due to the downward revaluation of core inflation on this horizon," the report reads.
The document mentions that the balance of risks to the annual inflation rate suggests possible upward deviations of inflation from its trajectory in the basic scenario. In particular, the geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could be the source of new supply shocks with an inflationary impact, while the trend visible at the global level to slow down economic activity could have a pull in the opposite direction.
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