The Confidex index measuring business confidence in the national economy fell from 51.3 to 47.2 compared with the previous edition, marking the sharpest decline since the survey's launch and reaching a level similar to H1 2021.
"By activity sectors, a segmentation of the Romanian economy into two important parts is noticeable. On the one hand, agriculture and IT are at the lowest levels of confidence, pulling down the confidence index, and on the other hand, we have industry, trade and services, which are very close to 50%. It is worth noting that no sector exceeds the level of 50 in H2 2025, which would indicate the limit between pessimism and optimism," said Romanian Business Leaders general director Alexandru Dincovici at a press conference.
Confidex is the only longitudinal survey in Romania that has measured business confidence for more than five years. Conducted since 2020 by Impetum Group, it brings together a community of over 4,500 entrepreneurs and business leaders. The 13th edition was carried out in partnership with Romanian Business Leaders (RBL).
According to the survey, the recent decline in the index reflects a context shaped by international political and economic instability, geopolitical tensions, regional macroeconomic pressures and limited legislative and fiscal predictability. Expectations of budget adjustments and reduced public investment also contribute to increased caution among companies.
Forty percent of Romanian managers say their company's situation has worsened in the past six months. Most respondents report dissatisfaction with the evolution of their own businesses, citing either declining performance or stagnation.
Managers generally express a cautious outlook on the sectoral, national, European and global economy, although concern is lowest regarding their own companies. Many believe they retain a higher degree of control over their business performance, with market differentiation depending on strategic decisions. Even so, 30% expect company health and profitability to deteriorate further in 2026.
Sectoral differences remain significant. Agriculture and IT show the lowest confidence levels, affected by cost volatility, regulatory exposure and external pressures. Services and trade, on the other hand, are the most optimistic, supported by relatively stable demand and greater adaptability.
"Approximately 45% of the managers interviewed in the second semester declare themselves to be in a state of caution. There is a decrease in the level of confidence, but it does not materialize through panic behavior, but through an increase in the degree of caution. By sector, the most worried are managers in agriculture and IT, and the most relaxed are managers in trade, industry and services," Dincovici added.
For the next six months, Confidex results indicate a macroeconomic outlook dominated by caution, with Romanian managers remaining reserved about economic developments and investment prospects.
About 78% of managers expect the legislative and fiscal environment to become less business-friendly, while only 3% anticipate an improvement.
Negative expectations extend to macro indicators: 64% of respondents foresee a depreciation of the RON against the euro, 52% expect reduced public investment, and unemployment is seen as likely to rise.
Only 19% of managers expect inflation to decrease. Trust in the Government, however, rose from 3% in the first semester of 2025 to 18% in the current edition.
The managers' main concerns remain declining sales, client numbers and orders, cited by 43% of respondents, similar to the previous edition. Economic and political instability dropped to 12%, increasingly viewed as part of the structural environment, according to the survey.
Reduced investment, investor caution and access to financing remain relevant issues for 16% of respondents. Concerns over rising taxes and duties increase to 22%, reflecting fears of higher fiscal pressure.
From an opportunity perspective, managers point to product diversification (25%), access to international markets (23%), and digitalization and technology (16%), alongside cost control and market consolidation.
Access to financing and attracting labor remain key challenges in 2026. Most managers believe foreign labor would benefit the Romanian economy overall, though about half of them see limited impact on their own companies or sectors.
In 2026, managers plan to focus on measures supporting business stability and growth, particularly increasing sales (51%), improving customer relations and digitizing operations (25%). Interest in promotion and visibility rises from 14% to 20%.
Despite the difficult context, entrepreneurs express the highest level of trust in other Romanian entrepreneurs and maintain a relatively positive view of the domestic business environment. Romanian entrepreneurs enjoy a trust level of 56%, while the business environment overall stands at 46%.
Regarding state authorities, 39% of entrepreneurs believe they are not oriented toward problem-solving, while 15% have a positive perception of their effectiveness.
For representation of business interests, 31% of respondents identify Romanian Business Leaders as the most effective organization. Perceptions of the organizations analysed are generally neutral, with Romanian Business Leaders and AmCham receiving the highest positive ratings.
Most respondents believe the business community should play a significant role in addressing issues the state does not manage effectively, with nearly 78% selecting "a lot" or "very much" as a measure of involvement.
Across its 12 editions, the Confidex survey has become a reference tool for business decision-making.
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