The economy at this moment is in an area of uncertainty, and towards the end of the year it will also be affected and economic growth will decelerate, Ionut Dumitru declared on Thursday, founding member of Romania's Association of Financial-Banking Analysts (AAFBR) and chief-economist for Raiffeisen Bank.
"If we look at the economy now we are in a somewhat area of uncertainty, if we look a bit forward. The economy will probably be affected at the end of the year and the economic growth will decelerate. We had two good trimesters, though - trimester I and II. Maybe even the 3rd trimester will look pretty good, but decelerating from the previous trimester. We will probably close the year with an economic growth of over 7%. We estimate it at 7.5%, but in light of recent evolutions it will probably be lower. The negative effects will probably extend to 2022 as well, the beginning of next year, if restrictions will be held. We see that retail is pretty affected and we can see that in the number of visitors. Traffic in large stores has significantly gone down in the last days, weeks and we will probably feel this new wave at an economic level as well," Ionut Dumitru said, at the annual conference of the Romania's Association of Financial-Banking Analysts (AAFBR).
In turn, Florian Libocor, founding member of AAFBR and chief economist for BRD, said that the GDP will remain in the positive area, between 6% and 8%, based on the evolution of the third and fourth trimesters. In his opinion, if the restrictions will remain, the effect will be seen in the GDP's performance, because when we are talking about "growth engines we cannot start with consumption".
"(...) I am expecting the GDP to decelerate in the fourth trimester. Consumption will especially be affected. The public investment part was somehow at the same level of last year, which means that it will not bring as big an impact as the one from last year's GDP growth. The GDP growth will be consistent, I believe, around 7% this year. It will decelerate next year somewhere around 4%," Adrian Codirlasu said, the deputy chairman of AAFBR and deputy chairman of CFA Romania.
Codirlasu estimated that Romania will have an inflation increase of 7-8% at the end of the year.