The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association decreased by 12.3 points to 47.1 in April this year, with 59% of the organisation's analysts expecting a reduction in the inflation rate in the next 12 months, compared to 75% in the previous year.
"After the correction recorded in previous months by the expectations component, the current conditions component has also declined substantially. Thus, both the confidence indicator and its components have reached the values recorded in November of the previous year. These corrections come amid the slowdown of the economy, despite the significant fiscal impulse, the expectations of an increase in the budget deficit, as well as the expectations of an increase in taxation in 2025," said Adrian Codirlasu, vice-president of the CFA Romania Association, in a press release sent to AGERPRES on Wednesday.
According to the cited source, the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (May 2025) increased compared to the previous year and stood at an average of 5.73%. At the same time, only almost 60% of the survey participants expect a reduction in the inflation rate in the next 12 months, compared to 75% in the previous exercise.
As for the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 88% of participants expect the RON to depreciate over the next 12 months, while the rest expect it to stagnate. Thus, the average value of expectations for the six-month horizon is 5.0172 RON for one euro, while for the 12-month horizon the average is 5.0719 RON for the single European currency.
The estimate for the budget deficit is also expected to stagnate at 5.7%, while the three-month ROBOR index is expected to fall to 5.95% from 6.05%.
The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association for 12 years, and is an indicator through which the organisation wants to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year. The survey is conducted in the last week of each month, and participants are members of the CFA Romania Association and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA (chartered financial analyst) exam.
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