Romania's joining the Eurozone has moved away, mainly due to the fiscal policies of recent years, according to chairman of the CFA Romania Association Adrian Codirlasu.
"According to the expectations of the CFA community in Romania, Romania's joining the Eurozone has moved away. What has caused this development is in particular the fiscal policy of recent years. High and persistent budget deficits cause high inflation, high interest rates and high public debt. These macroeconomic imbalances distance us from the possibility of joining the Eurozone in at least an average time horizon."
According to a press statement of the association released on Tuesday, the Macroeconomic Confidence Index of the CFA Romania Association decreased slightly, by 0.6 points, in December. Its two components followed divergent developments. Thus, the expectations component increased by 4.4 points, up to 38.6, with the respondents anticipating the continuation of the policies to bridge the government deficit. However, the current conditions component decreased by 10.6 points, given a sharp drop in consumption in October and November.
The expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (January 2027) increased from the previous month to 6.65%, and 68% of the respondents are expecting the inflation rate to fall in the next 12 months from its current value.
As for the euro/leu exchange rate, about 96% of the respondents anticipate a depreciation of Romania's national currency, the leu, in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.1375 lei to the euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated euro/leu exchange rate is 5.1894 lei to the euro.
Regarding the developments in residential property prices in cities, 59% of the respondents are expecting stagnation in the next 12 months. Also, 64% of them consider that the current prices are over-valued, and 32% that they are correctly set.
The government deficit forecast for 2026 recorded the average value of expectations of 7% of GDP. Economic growth expectations for 2025 stand at an average value of 0.8%. In 2026, the economy is expected to grow by 0.9%.
Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 61 percent in the next 12 months.
Approximately 91% of the respondents are expecting Romania to remain in the recommended investment rating category for the next 12 months.
As far as Romania's accession to the Eurozone is concerned, the expected horizon is over 13 years as against 11 years in 2024.
CFA Romania Association is an organisation of investment professionals in Romania, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, a qualification administered by the CFA Institute of the U.S.
Currently, the CFA Romania Association has over 250 members.
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