The annual inflation rate could continue to fall in the second half of the year to around 6% at the end of 2026, but the risks generated by the developments in energy prices, the geopolitical context and possible fiscal changes remain high, economic consultant Adrian Negrescu told AGERPRES.
"The downward trend in the summer heralds a gradual easement, but the risks remain high. The slight decrease in the annual inflation rate to 10.4% in June provides a first positive signal. However, persistent pressures on services and energy show that the fight against price increases is far from over. Inflation remains significantly above the European average and continues to erode the purchasing power of Romanians, especially affecting households on medium and low incomes," the economic consultant said.
In his opinion, the Romanian economy is gradually adapting, given that "the general trend seems to be one of calming".
"June could mark the beginning of a gradual decline in inflation in the coming months, with estimates indicating a drop to 6% by the end of 2026, according to the trajectory anticipated by the National Bank of Romania (BNR)," the specialist added.
According to him, persistent inflation reduces private consumption and complicates investment planning for businesses.
"Romanian companies are facing higher costs for energy and services, which erodes their competitiveness against European competition. On the other hand, higher wages negotiated to compensate for price increases can fuel a price-wage spiral, especially in labour-intensive sectors," Negrescu added.
Data with the National Institute of Statistics (INS) published recently confirm that services remain the main driver of inflation, with an annual increase of 13.67%. Rent surged by 43.29%, followed by water-sewage-sanitation (+16.10%), car repairs (+14.58%) and medical assistance (+12.69%). The only notable decrease came from air services (-7.31%).
Negrescu pointed out that non-foods have become more expensive by 12.29%, and food by 5.75%. On the shelf, coffee increased by 19.9%, eggs by 13.66%, cow's milk by 12.13%, and beef by 11.95%. On the other hand, potatoes became cheaper by 14.47%, fresh fruits by 9.48%, and flour by 4.20%, Negrescu said.
At the same time, for non-food goods, electricity posted a dramatic surge of 59.97%, after the removal of the cap. Fuels rose sharply: gasoline +22.74%, diesel +28.16%.
The National Bank of Romania (BNR) correctly anticipated this development, he added.
On July 8, BNR kept its policy rate at 6.50% and estimated that the annual inflation rate will decrease slightly in June, and in the third quarter of 2026 it will record a substantial decrease, amid the exhaustion of the direct effects of the elimination of the ceiling on the price of electricity and the increase in VAT rates and excise duties.
"From August, the large increases in the summer of 2025 (energy, VAT, excise duties) will come out of the calculation of inflation. This is the statistical base effect, which will pull the indicator down without the real prices falling. Prices will continue to increase, but at a slower pace. Not everything is rosy. The war in the Middle East and the possible escalation of oil prices represent a major risk. Any additional energy shock would be quickly felt in transport and production costs," Negrescu said.
Domestically, political uncertainty and the eventual tax changes of a new government could generate new inflationary pressures. A possible increase in taxes would quickly spill into prices, he argues.
"How will inflation influence the BNR's monetary policy decisions in the second half of the year? The answer will depend on the balance between positive base effects and external or fiscal risks. For the moment, the trend remains downward, but with cautious steps."
In his opinion, Romania has the chance of a gradual stabilisation, but success depends on risk management and structural reforms that reduce dependence on imported energy and increase economic resilience.
The annual inflation rate fell to 10.42% in June 2026, from 10.85% in May, as services rose by 13.67%, non-foods by 12.29% and foods by 5.75%, according to data published on Monday by the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
