Tax increases, recession, disinformation, armed conflicts - main risks for 2025 Romania (CFA poll)

The main risks for Romania in 2025 are both economic, tax increases and recession, and non-economic, disinformation and armed conflicts, analysts of the CFA Romania Association believe, as shown by a press release sent to AGERPRES on Thursday.

"The main risks anticipated by respondents for 2025 are both economic - tax increases and recession, and non-economic, disinformation and armed conflicts falling into this category. The economy will perform below potential this year, and next year it will continue to decelerate," said Adrian Codirlasu, president of the CFA Romania Association, quoted in the association's press release.

In the exercise conducted in October, survey participants were also asked what the main risks facing the Romanian economy in the coming year are. According to the answers, in the top 5 risks for next year, three are economic, and two are non-economic.

Thus, the main risk for next year is represented by changes in the tax policy. This is followed by the risk of the Romanian economy entering a recession and by a non-economic risk, the risk of disinformation. Then the next two risks are the sustainability of public debt and the risk of armed conflicts between states.

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased in October, by 4.8 points to the value of 44.9 points. This situation was mainly due to the increase by 7.3 points of the anticipation component of the indicator, while the current conditions component remained relatively constant.

The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (November 2025) decreased slightly compared to the previous exercise and stood at an average value of 4.72%. At the same time, around 33% of the participants anticipate a reduction in the inflation rate in the next 12 months, and approximately 39% anticipate a stability of this indicator.

Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, around 72% of the participants anticipate a depreciation of the RON in the next 12 months, and the rest a stagnation. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.0627 RON for one EUR, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0964 RON for one EUR.

Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, 44% of the participants anticipate a decrease in the next 12 months, while 33% anticipate a stagnation. Also, 72% of the participants believe that the current prices are overvalued, and 28% that they are correctly valued.

The state budget deficit forecast for 2024 has increased to the average value of the expectations of 7.8% of GDP. In the following year, it is estimated to decrease to 6.5%.

Economic growth expectations for the current year continued to decline compared to the previous years and stand at 1.6%. For next year, the economy is expected to decelerate to a real GDP growth rate of 1.4%, with some respondents also speculating about a recession.

Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 57% in the next 12 months.

The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association for over 13 years, and represents an indicator through which the organization seeks to quantify financial analysts' expectations regarding the economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon.

The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator takes values between 0 (lack of confidence) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy).