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CFA Romania analysts expect public debt to grow to 52.5 pct of GDP in 12 months

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Experts of Romania's chartered financial analysts association CFA Romania put their budget deficit estimates at 7 percent of GDP in 2021 and 5.7 percent in 2022, projecting also an inflation rate of 6.06 percent over a 12-month horizon and a public debt expansion to 52.5 percent of GDP, the organization said in a release on Wednesday.

Additional questions regarding the impact of the coronavirus crisis on the national economy (the duration of the pandemic's economic impact, the GDP and budget deficit evolution) have been included in the survey conducted by CFA Romania.

Thus, the average projection for the 2021 state budget deficit is 7 percent, and 5.7 percent for 2022. The average projection for the nominal GDP growth in 2021 is +6.6 percent, and 4.3 percent for 2022. Also, the public debt (as percentage of GDP) is seen at about 52.5 percent over a 12-month horizon.

The majority of survey participants, 36 percent, predict the coronavirus economic impact to last until at least the second quarter of 2023.

"Amid the substantial increase of the inflation rate, inflation expectations for a 12-month horizon continued to rise, reaching a new all-time high (of the CFA Romania Association survey). Moreover, the high dispersion of the responses is indicative of the high uncertainty regarding the evolution of inflation next year. In line with inflationary expectations and the central bank's monetary policy measures, expectations of an increase in interest rates on both the money market and for government securities have also increased," said vice president of the CFA Romania Association Adrian Codirlasu.

CFA Romania's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator increased slightly to 57.6 points (compared to the same month of the previous year the increase was of 7.2 points) due to the divergent evolution of the two components of the indicator. The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon continued to go up, averaging at 6.06 percent.

Regarding the euro to RON exchange rate, all survey participants (100 percent) predict a depreciation of the RON in the next 12 months (from the current value). Thus, the average 6-month projection for the exchange rate is 5.0284, while the average exchange rate expected over a 12-month horizon is 5.0859 RON for one euro. The lowest estimated euro to RON exchange rate is 4.9700.

CFA Romania is the association of Romanian investment professionals who hold the certification of Chartered Financial Analyst (CFAŽ), a credential granted by the US-based CFA Institute. CFA Romania is one of the over 160 CFA Institute members, and has the mission to promote the interests of investment experts and maintain high standards of integrity and professional excellence. The association currently has over 250 members.


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