Economic growth of 4.6% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023 (strategy)

The Romanian economy will grow in the next two years by 4.6% in 2022 and 5.3% in 2023, and the advance will slow down in 2024 when an increase in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 5%, estimates the Finance Ministry (MF) in the "Fiscal-budgetary strategy for the period 2022-2024".

"For the period 2022-2024, a sustainable economic growth, based on investments, was considered for the gross formation of fixed capital, estimating clearly superior evolutions to the final consumption. According to the autumn 2021 forecast, for 2022, an economic growth of 4.6% is estimated. For the period 2022 - 2024, the average annual growth rate of the gross domestic product is forecast at 5% in real terms," the document mentions.

The Gross Domestic Product for 2022 is estimated at 1,317.267 billion lei.

The budget planning for 2022 and the estimates for the period 2022-2024 set the ESA budget deficit in 2022 at 6.24% of GDP, which will reach 2.90% of GDP in 2024, respectively a reduction of 3.34 percentage points compared to 2022, falling at the end of the forecast horizon (2024) within the provisions of European regulations, respectively 2.90% of GDP in 2024. In 2023, an ESA deficit of 4.4% of GDP is estimated.

According to the strategy, on the demand side, gross fixed capital formation will be the main factor of economic growth, with an annual rate of 9.9%, the scenario taking into account the impact of the absorption of both funds allocated under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR), as well as those in the multiannual financial framework.

The current account deficit will have an average of 16.6 billion euros, in the period 2022-2024, the share in GDP will be 5.5%, in the last year of the forecast horizon.

Inflation will continue its upward trend, with the average annual rate indicating an increase of 6.5%, while at the end of the year, consumer prices are expected to reach a level of 4.7%. In the absence of other shocks, the inflation trend is attenuating, reaching at the end of 2024 a threshold of 2.7%, respectively 2.9% as an annual average.

According to the autumn forecast, an economic advance of 7%, a nominal value of gross domestic product of 1,190.3 billion lei and a deflator of 5.4% are estimated for 2021. The European Commission's autumn 2021 forecast estimates a nominal gross domestic product of 1,173.5 billion lei for 2021, with economic growth of 7.0% and a GDP deflator of 3.9%, Agerpres informs.