Romanian companies must take solid measures to hedge away currency risk, as fluctuations in the financial markets tend to increase along with economic problems growing critical, shows an analysis conducted by Moneycorp Romania.
"The recent significant fluctuations in the US dollar's exchange rate, along with the evolution of bond yields, herald a period fraught with challenges, during which financial markets are expected to react to the ever growing risk of recession looming over the economy. In the absence of effective measures to contain inflation, the relative stability of the exchange rate can be associated with the calm before the storm. Romanian companies must take solid measures to hedge the exchange risk, as fluctuations in the financial markets tend to grow with the intensification of economic problems," Moneycorp Romania analysts caution.
According to the cited source, the costs of lending, double-digit inflation, the rising costs with utilities (energy, gas, fuels) and raw materials, and the decrease in supplier credit constantly accentuate distrust in the economy.
Analysts argue that the EUR-RON exchange rate has been one of the few stability indicators in the last two years, as the national currency displayed just a low volatility.
"The economic growth announced by the statistical authority for the first three quarters of 2022 gave a signal that positively influenced investors' perception of Romania. At the same time, the inflow of NRRP funds implicitly led to an increase in the central bank's reserves, so this aspect also contributed to the stability of the exchange rate," the analysts explain.
Despite economic growth in the first three quarters of the year, slightly contrary to expectations, the data of the National Institute of Statistics shows that industry and foreign trade had a negative contribution to the creation of GDP.
"Industrial production is losing momentum, retail trade - the main engine of the economy - shows signs of slowing down, and important sectors such as construction are coming with worrying news. We are headed, as the National Bank estimates, for an economic stagnation which, amid this inflationary context, can lead us to a worsening of the economic crisis," the Moneycorp analysis shows. AGERPRES