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Eu parliament elections, TSUNAMI in Parliament: optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for each party / ANALYSIS

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Euro-parliamentary elections do not have, generally, very high political stakes in the countries of the European Union, but the political picture in Romania is different. Here, they can greatly influence the internal power play, so the stakes is the demonstration of an electoral majority. If the PSD-ALDE alliance would get more votes than PNL, USR and PMP, then the power structure would not change. But if the opposition gets more votes, then the situation in the national Parliament would become really explosive, even more so since PNL and USR intend to file a no confidence motion immediately after the election.

STIRIPESURSE.RO makes an analysis of each parliamentary party and shows you to the optimistic / pessimistic scenario for each of the political actors.

List of political actors analyzed:

  • Social Democratic Party (PSD) suspended member of the S&D European Group;
  • National Liberal Party (PNL), member of EPP
  • An alliance between Save Romania Union (USR), which announced the intention of joining a new liberal group in the European Parliament and PLUS, which is likely to join the same group.
  • ALDE Romania, member of the ALDE group, has not announced an intention to join the a liberal group after the dissolution of ALDE Europe.
  • Pro Romania Party, of the former prime-minister Victor Ponta (ex-PSD).
  • PMP, member of EPP, party of former president Traian Băsescu.
  • UDMR, party of the Hungarian minority.



PSD - the psychological threshold is at 30%

Optimistic scenario: For PSD, the stake in these elections is to obtain more than 30% and to put enough distance between them and PNL. With over 30%, Liviu Dragnea can seriously pursue a presidential bid, because he is the locomotive of the elections, and the PSD electorate will have given a vote of confidence to him and the party. At the same time, if the PSD gets above 30%, the chances that the referendum initiated by Klaus Iohannis is validated would become extremely low, given that the PSD leaders have signaled a boycott.

Pessimistic scenario: In this scenario, the PSD gets less than 30% in elections, so PNL would be breathing down their neck. A nearly 20% drop in voters' preferences, spread among two and a half years of government, would give food for hought to many MPs who would then seek their salvation elsewhere. At less than 30%, it would be clear that PSD is a party that has entered a downward slope; a presidential victory would become utopia, and parliamentary and local elections in 2020 would prove extremely complicated. Such a score could lead to serious movements of troops in Parliament and even to the change of the parliamentary majority,and, implicitly, the fall of the Government. At the same time, a score below 30% for PSD would increase the chances for the referendum initiated by Klaus Iohannis to be validated.

PNL - psychological threshold is at 25% would

Optimistic scenario: For PNL, the stake of these elections is a huge one. With a score of 25% or more, the Liberals would show that they are growing and there is a chance for the referendum initiated by Klaus Iohannis to be validated. With this score, the Liberals would be very close to PSD and would be able to make demands for the change of the parliamentary majority. Moreover, the score would make it easier for Klaus Iohannis to obtain the second term in office.

Pessimistic scenario: A score close to 20% would be a disaster for PNL. That would mean that the PSD is a long way in front, and the USR-PLUS alliance has come too close, with the possibility that they (USR-PLUS) become the main opposition force. It would also be very difficult to validate the referendum initiated by Klaus Iohannis. At the same time, such a score would give rise to internal convulsions, which could lead to the overthrow of Ludovic Orban from the leadership of PNL.

USR-PLUS: trying to be as close as possible to PNL

Optimistic scenario: For the USR-PLUS alliance, the optimistic scenario is the one in which it obtains 16-18%, which would validate it as a feasible alliance and open up the possibility merging into one party. The Alliance would be very close to PNL and would show that they have a strong growth with high chances to have a good result in the upcoming local and parliamentary elections in 2020. In this context, the USR-PLUS alliance could support a presidential candidate who would pose a serious challenge to Klaus Iohannis.

Pessimistic scenario: For USR-PLUS, the pessimistic scenario is a 10-12% score, which would mean that they are far from PNL and PSD. It is very likely that such a score would lead to the break-up of the alliance and, in the run-up to the presidential election, they would have no choice but to rally around Klaus Iohannis.

ALDE - above or below 10%?

Optimistic scenario: For ALDE, the stake is to get a two-digit score and, paradoxically, it would most probably be helped help by a bad score of its ally, PSD. Under these circumstances, ALDE would go on to play an increasingly important role in the ruling coalition and would have a serious input in future negotiations with the PSD. With the downward trend of PSD and with ALDE on the upward trend, Tăriceanu would have the legitimacy to demand to be the only candidate of the alliance in the presidential election.

Pessimistic scenario: For ALDE any score below 10% does not help the party. Their voice in the coalition would remain weak, and, for Tăriceanu, the dream to run for the presidential election would be ruined. It is possible that such a score would trigger a departure of militants from ALDE to PNL, because more and more current MPs would understand that they cannot not get a mandate next to Tăriceanu.

Pro Romania - stake is a 10%

Optimistic scenario: Pro Romania, Victor Ponta's party, would participate for the first time in the election test. The big stake is to get a 10% score, which would seriously eat off from the PSD voters. If Pro Romania gets this score and the PSD is under 30%, many PSD MPs would remember Victor Ponta and start negotiations with him.

The pessimistic scenario: A pessimistic scenario for Pro Romania is not to pass the electoral threshold or to get 5-7%. In that context, it would prove that the PSD electorate did not leave for Victor Ponta and the people around him. The PSD break-up tendencies would be seriously hampered.

PMP - the swan song of Traian Băsescu

Optimistic scenario: The optimistic scenario for PMP would be to make the electoral threshold. A score of over 5% ensures the continuity of the party and a breath of fresh air before the eventual withdrawal of Traian Basescu,

The pessimistic scenario: For PMP, the pessimistic scenario would be not to make the electoral threshold, which would amount to the withdrawal of Traian Băsescu from political life and very likely the dissolution of the party. It is possible in this scenario for PMP to be approached by the PNL, without too much gain for the current party leaders. At the same time this would be the first major defeat in Traian Băsescu's political career.

UDMR - the middle way

Optimistic scenario: For UDMR optimistic scenario would be to get 5%, which sends them to the European Parliament.

Pessimistic scenario: For UDMR, the pessimistic scenario would be not to make the electoral threshold. That would be a disaster, and would force the party to rethink their whole strategy.

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