The official estimate regarding the evolution of the economy in 2020 stands at minus 1.9% until the data of the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis appear, said on Tuesday, the Minister of Finance, Florin Citu, mentioning that so far the negative scenarios, such as an economic decline of 8%, have been eliminated.
"Nobody is thinking of 8% anymore, after we had economic growth of 2.7% in the first quarter. It is impossible to reach -8%. The European Commission, again an important thing, kept for Romania this pessimistic estimate from my point of view, but macroeconomic models work with different inputs, but at the same time it has worsened the estimates for almost all EU countries. Our official estimate remains at minus 1.9% until the release of [the forecast of] the National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis. All we did was to eliminate those negative scenarios," Florin Citu told the ZF-Bankers Summit '20 video conference.
The Minister of Finance stressed that, in the first six months, the investments amounted to 16.1 billion lei, "the largest amount invested in the economy in the last ten years" and this "in the midst of the global economic crisis," said Florin Citu .
Consumption remains important, says Citu. The two measures taken by the Executive, the one with the furlough, somewhere at a little more than 4 billion lei paid, and that program to postpone the loan installments, for 9 months, "helped and are helping consumption in the short term".
"So, the two components: the investments that will be seen both in industrial production, but also in other components in the economy, plus consumption will be those that will mitigate the fall in 2020 and will lay the foundations for economic growth in 2021," Florin Citu added.
He stressed that Romania's economy will recover quickly in 2021 and stressed that it is a very good time for Romania to become, in this period, more competitive in the European Union.
Romania's economy will register a significant decrease this year, of 6%, according to the economic forecasts from this summer published by the European Commission, a level similar to its May forecast. For 2021, the EC estimates an advance of 4% in Romania's GDP, compared to a 4.2% increase forecast in May.
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