Premium
Romania's GDP growth in 2023 will be somewhere between 2pct and 3pct, while inflation will go down, towards 10pct, according to a personal point of view, expressed on Tuesday by Fiscal Council President Daniel Daianu during a relevant conference.
"As macro hypotheses for 2023, I'm disclosing some personal points of view, although I am the president of the Fiscal Council. I cannot come up with a standpoint on behalf of the Fiscal Council, because we do not have the construction of the budget, I do not know what are the hypotheses based on which the Government will construct its 2023 budget, but I can provide some clues. GDP growth next year will be much lower. We will have a sharp slowdown and I see 2-3pct growth in 2023, if we don't have some adverse and more severe shocks. We do not know what will happen in Europe. There is even this prospect of stagflation, and Romania is connected. Romania's economy pulsates along with what is happening to the European economy. From an increase this year, in real terms, of 6-7pct, which seems surprising... In my opinion, inflation in the coming year will go down, from around 16pct. We will have a process of disinflation. An inflation of, let's say, 10pct in 2023 is not good news, but at least we have a process of disinflation if we are thoughtful in our budget policy," Daianu stated, told Agerpres.
The economist pointed out that Romania must be careful with budget policies and indexations.
"The financial markets are ruthless. We cannot afford this, we must continue to be thoughtful with the budget policy, be very careful with the indexations we'll make. We must continue to aim for a smaller deficit in 2023, and move towards 5pct and this can be achieved," Daniel Daianu explained.
He estimates that a budget draft for 2023 might be ready in the first part of November.
"What matters for the credibility of the Government, for the credibility of Romania and for you as citizens is that this budget calms the markets, so it can be seen that Romania has the resources to cover basic needs, that it can attract and use European money," the President of the Fiscal Council stated.
Representatives of authorities and business milieu participated, on Tuesday, in the event called "Budget and taxation 2023: what should the economy expect," as part of the CursdeGuvernare conference series.
