Donald Trump is not going to pull out of NATO if he becomes president, despite his rhetoric, but he's got a very peculiar view of Russia, he's willing to cut deals, Paul Stronski, a senior associate in Carnegie's Russia and Eurasia Program, told agerpres in an interview.
Stronski focuses on the relationship between Russia and neighboring countries in Central Asia and the South Caucasus and he served as a senior analyst for Russian domestic politics in the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research.
"Trump is an isolationist. He doesn't want to commit to alliances. Not just NATO, to any alliance," he said. "If Trump wins, it's not going to be good for the Eastern flank. He's someone who's willing to do deals, he implies that the US and Russia can work together in Syria and the Middle East, there might be a deal to not focus so much on US commitment to the Eastern states," Stronski said.
However, he added, there will be nothing radical such as pulling out of NATO. "He's got a lot of rhetoric, but I think, if he does win, there would be some republican foreign policy experts who actually have experience and who will step into his administration and try to temper his worst tendencies," the analyst explained.
Stronski added that, even so, there will be less focus on security in Eastern Europe, as Trump sees only one threat and that is terrorism.
On the other hand, Hillary Clinton, who is much more experienced and understands the importance of NATO and has a team that understands the importance of security in Eastern Europe, will probably continue the Obama administration policy in the region.
"However, I think in terms of expanding the alliance, it's not going to be in the cards anytime soon," he pointed out. "But I think there will be some assistance in bolstering countries like Georgia."
He believes that under a Clinton administration, there will be a continuation of the status quo for a while, given that there;s no new Russian aggression in Ukraine, because even for the foreign policy of the democrat candidate, terrorism, the situation in the Middle East, and the relations with Cuba, which is much closer to home, are bigger priorities.
As far as Russia is concerned, he says that beyond Clinton's emails, there are a lot of innocent people who got caught in the middle and whose private e-mails were exposed to the public and there is also a lot of anger. "I don't see a real softening in the relations with Russia. Hillary Clinton and Putin don't like each other," Stronski said. "But as you can see, it's not really the biggest priority. Russia will taunt the Eastern countries of NATO, and part of the response is to firm up their resilience," he added.
"I don't think there will be more sanctions in the immediate future. To have effective sanctions you need Europe behind you, and I don't see any real push in Europe. I think Europe is for keeping the sanctions going as opposed to expanding sanctions," Stronski pointed out.
Democracy assistance to the Eastern countries facing increased Russian propaganda is also a big unknown if Trump becomes president of the US. But he says there will be continuity under a Clinton administration.
"I think if you ask people in the government they would be more concerned about things like the English language propaganda and its influence in countries like Serbia or regions like Republica Srpska. But I do think there is a better understanding of the situation, of the need to focus less on English language propaganda and empower local journalists more, and less about correcting Russian propaganda," he concluded.
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