The inflation rate expectations for the next 12 months have decreased compared to the previous year, for the first time in this inflationary episode, but fiscal policy remains the main risk to inflation and financial stability in the coming year, according to the president of the CFA Romania Association, Adrian Codirlasu.
"In line with the evolution of the economy, the confidence indicator continued to decline. It is worth noting that, for the first time in this inflationary episode, the expectations of the evolution of the inflation rate for the next 12 months have decreased compared to the previous year. It is also worth noting the expectations of a slow reduction in the budget deficit. In practice, fiscal policy remains the main risk to inflation and financial stability in the coming year," Codirlasu said, according to a statement from the organization, agerpres reports.
The monthly survey conducted by CFA Romania shows that the anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (November 2026) decreased compared to the value recorded in the previous month and reached the level of 6.26%, and 75% of participants anticipate a reduction in the inflation rate in the next 12 months compared to its current value.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, approximately 83% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months. Thus, the average value of the expectations for the 6-month horizon is 5.1410 RON per euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average value of the anticipated EUR/RON exchange rate is 5.2045 RON per euro.
The state budget deficit forecast for 2025 registered the average value of the expectations of 8.3% of GDP. For 2026, the anticipated budget deficit is 7%.
Economic growth expectations for 2025 have decreased compared to the previous year and stand at an average value of 0.6%. For 2026, the economy is expected to grow below 1%.
Public debt calculated as a percentage of GDP is expected to increase to 62% in the next 12 months.
Regarding the evolution of residential property prices in cities, 54% of participants anticipate stagnation in the next 12 months. Also, 67% of participants consider that current prices are overvalued, and 33% that they are correctly valued.
An additional question included in the survey refers to expectations regarding Romania's downgrade to the non-investment grade ("junk"). Thus, according to the results, approximately 96% of participants anticipate Romania's maintenance in the investment grade category in the next 12 months.
The CFA Romania Association's Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator fell by 7.3 points in October. Its two components registered significant decreases. Thus, the expectations component fell by 7.8 points, to 29.2, while the current conditions component fell by 6.3 points, to 32.3.
The survey is conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association for over 14 years, and represents an indicator through which the organization wishes to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding economic activity in Romania for a one-year time horizon. The survey is conducted in the last week of each month and the participants are members of the CFA Romania Association and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator takes values ??between 0 (lack of confidence) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on 6 questions regarding current conditions - regarding the business environment and the labor market and the expectations for a one-year time horizon for the business environment, the labor market, the evolution of personal income at the economy level and the evolution of personal wealth at the economy level.
In addition to the questions necessary for calculating the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, the survey also evaluates expectations, also for a one-year horizon, for the inflation rate, interest rates, the EUR/RON exchange rate, the BET stock market index and global macroeconomic conditions.
Currently, the CFA Romania Association has over 250 members, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title.
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