The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association dropped 13.5 points in November, reaching a value of 31.4 points, due to extremely high political uncertainty. This is the lowest level recorded since July 2020.
According to data from CFA Romania, this situation was caused by a sharp decline in both components of the indicator. Specifically, the expectations component decreased 12.1 points to 23.3 points, the lowest level since January 2019. At the same time, the current conditions component dropped 16.4 points, reaching 47.8 points.
"Amid extremely high political uncertainty and a significant increase in investor risk aversion, the confidence indicator has dropped to levels last seen only during the COVID-19 pandemic," explained CFA Romania president Adrian Codirlasu in a press release sent to AGERPRES on Thursday.
According to the monthly survey conducted by CFA Romania, the expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (December 2025) has increased compared to the previous survey, standing at an average value of 5%. At the same time, 59% of analysts anticipate an increase in the inflation rate over the next 12 months, while 27% expect it to remain stable.
Regarding the EUR/RON exchange rate, over 77% of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months, while the rest expect it to remain stable. The average anticipated exchange rate for the 6-month horizon is 5.0310 lei per euro, while for the 12-month horizon, the average expected rate is 5.0831 lei per euro.
For 2025, CFA Romania analysts forecast economic growth of 1.3%, down from 1.6% expected for the end of this year. The projected state budget deficit for next year has increased to an average forecast of 7.2% of GDP, down from the 7.8% forecast for the end of 2024. Public debt, calculated as a percentage of GDP, is expected to rise to 58% over the next 12 months.
Regarding residential property prices in cities, 50% of participants expect no change over the next 12 months, while 32% expect a decrease. Additionally, 68% of participants consider current prices to be overvalued, while 27% believe they are correctly valued.
Survey participants were asked about the main risks to the Romanian economy in the coming year. According to their responses, the top 5 risks for next year include three economic risks and two non-economic risks.
Thus, the primary risk for next year is changes in fiscal policy, followed by the risk of the Romanian economy entering a recession. The third risk is non-economic - the risk of disinformation. The next two risks are the sustainability of public debt and the risk of armed conflicts between states.
The survey is conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association and has been running for over 13 years. It aims to quantify financial analysts' expectations regarding economic activity in Romania for a one-year horizon. The survey is conducted during the last week of each month, and the participants are members of CFA Romania and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA examination.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator ranges from 0 (lack of confidence) to 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on 6 questions regarding current conditions - related to the business environment and labour market; expectations for the business environment, labour market, personal income trends at the national level, and personal wealth trends at the national level over a one-year horizon.
In addition to the questions necessary for calculating the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, the survey also assesses expectations, for a one-year horizon, regarding inflation rates, interest rates, EUR/RON exchange rates, the BET stock index, and global macroeconomic conditions.
CFA Romania is the association of investment professionals in Romania who hold the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, a qualification administered by CFA Institute (USA).
Currently, CFA Romania has over 250 members who hold the Chartered Financial Analyst title.
Comentează