The manufacturing industry and services are expected to experience relatively stable economic activity and employment levels during the period from January to March 2025, while retail trade is anticipated to see a sharp increase in prices, according to data released by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) on Monday.
In the January business survey, managers in the manufacturing industry forecast relative stability in production volume for the next three months (conjunctural balance -5%). Regarding employment levels, a relative stability is expected, with a conjunctural balance of -4%. For industrial product prices, an increase is forecast over the next three months (conjunctural balance +30%).
According to estimates, construction is expected to see a moderate decrease in production volume during the mentioned period (conjunctural balance -6%). Managers also expect a moderate decline in the number of employees (conjunctural balance -7%). As for construction work prices, a rise is expected (conjunctural balance +38%).
In the retail sector, a moderate decrease in economic activity is anticipated (conjunctural balance -8%). The volume of orders placed with goods suppliers by commercial units will see a moderate increase (conjunctural balance +8%). Employers also forecast a moderate rise in employment levels (conjunctural balance +14%). Additionally, significant increases in retail sale prices are expected (conjunctural balance +46%).
According to the January estimates, the demand for services (turnover) will experience relative stability in the next three months (conjunctural balance -4%). Managers in the services sector foresee relative stability in employment levels (conjunctural balance -1%). Furthermore, prices for services or billing rates are expected to rise (conjunctural balance +24%).
"The conjunctural balance reflects managers' perceptions of the dynamics of a phenomenon, which should not be confused with the pace of increase or decrease of any statistical indicator. Additionally, the percentage of the conjunctural balance is obtained as the difference between the percentage of managers who selected the positive variant of the phenomenon and the percentage of those who indicated the negative variant," explains INS.
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