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The emergence and spread of the coronavirus could have an adverse effect on global demand, despite the appeasement, to a certain extent, of US - China trade tensions by the signing of phase one of the trade agreement, the National Strategy and Prognosis Commission (CNSP) said.
The commission maintained its estimate for this year's growth of the Romanian economy at 4.1 percent, as it expects the industry to bounce back in the second half of 2020 so that the overall increase in the gross value added will be positive. Also, the total volume of constructions will continue to grow, yet at a slower pace. As regards the tertiary sector, the commission expects the development of services to make a higher added value contribution.
On the other hand, CNSP cautions against a risk generated by the potential effects on agriculture of the adverse weather conditions this year.
On a foreign level, apart from the risks posed by the coronavirus, CNSP also mentions the risk of the price rise for energy and other fungible goods, as well as the increased volatility of foreign exchange markets as a result of the slowdown of the Chinese economy, which influences global demand, as well as because of the persisting widespread conflict in the Middle East.
The forecast for the main macroeconomic indicators for the period 2019 - 2023 shows an economic growth of 4.1 percent this year (GDP at 1.141 billion lei), followed by an advance of 4.2 percent in each 2021 and 2022, and 4 percent in 2023.
Inflation is seen falling to 3 percent at the end of the year, in line with the forecast of the National Bank of Romania, and will then be 2.8 percent in 2021, 2.6 percent in 2022 and 2.4 percent in 2023.
The average number of employees will rise to 5.242 million this year from 5.154 million in 2019; in 2021 the number of employees is estimated to reach 5,340 million, in 2022 - 5,435 million and in 2023 - 5,535 million.
The ILO unemployment rate is forecast at 3.8 percent this year and will then fall steadily over the next three years to 3.7 percent in 2021, 3.6 percent in 2022 and 3.5 percent in 2023.
The net average monthly wage will progressively rise to 3,337 lei this year; 3,583 lei in 2021; 3,841 lei in 2022; and 4,107 lei in 2023.
CNSP also mentioned that the standard outlooks are the spring and autumn forecasts, while the winter forecast is an interim, concise outlook which includes the information emerged in the interval between the autumn forecast (representing the macroeconomic framework that usually underlies the budget) and the spring forecast (which is the basis for the Convergence Program). The detailed projections for the period 2020 - 2023, determined by considering the developments in the first months of 2020, will be published on the occasion of the spring forecast, somewhere in April - May this year, CNSP said.
