The CFA (Chartered Financial Analysts) Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index increased by 0.5 points to 34.9 points in March compared to the previous month, but compared to the same month of the previous year, dropped by 12.7 points, a release of the CFA Romania investment professionals' association informs on Tuesday.
According to the quoted source, this evolution was due to the indicator's forecasting component.
Thus, the current conditions indicator decreased by 0.4 points compared to the previous month to 47.1 points (compared to the same month of the previous year, the current conditions indicator decreased by 17.1 points).
The forecast indicator rose by one point to 28.9 points (as compared to the same month of the previous year, the expectations indicator dropped by 10.5 points).
With regard to the euro / leu exchange rate, over 84 percent of participants anticipate a depreciation of the leu in the next 12 months (compared to the current value). Thus, the median expectations for the 6-month horizon is 4.7946, while for the 12-month horizon the median value of the expected rate is 4.8541.
The anticipated inflation rate for the 12-month horizon (April 2020 / April 2019) reached a median value of 4.03 percent.
The release states that it is worth noting that the interest rate for the medium-term maturities (5 years) are expected to rise, over 80 percent of the participants anticipating this evolution, as well as the anticipations of an increase in the country's risk premium, over 88 percent of the participants anticipating this evolution.
The CFA Romania Macroeconomic Confidence Index was launched in May 2011 by CFA Romania as an index that quantifies the expectations of financial analysts from Romania's economy over one year. Moreover, the survey based on which the indicator is calculated also includes questions related to the assessment of current macroeconomic conditions.
CFA Romania is the association of Romania's investment professionals who hold the Chartered Financial Analyst title, a qualification managed by the U.S.-based CFA Institute.