Prognosis Commission revises 2019 year-end inflation estimate upwards to 3.2 pct

The National Strategy and Prognosis Commission (CNSP) revised upwards to 3.2 pct its year-end inflation forecast for 2019, changing also its average exchange rate estimates upwards to 4.74 lei/euro, according to the CNSP Spring Outlook 2019 - 2022. 

According to CNSP winter estimates, inflation was seen at 2.8 pct at the end of the year and the average exchange rate was projected at 4.67 lei/euro. The annual average inflation is seen at 3.4 pct in the current version of the document, up from 2.8 pct in the winter projection. 

The 2020 inflation forecast was also revised upwards to 2.8 pct for the end of the year from the previous 2.5 pct and the average exchange rate estimate is now 4.71 lei/euro as to 4.62 lei/euro. For 2021 and 2022, the year-end inflation forecast was maintained at 2.3 pct and 2.2 pct respectively, while the exchange rate is expected to reach 4.69 lei/euro in 2021 (from 4.60 lei/euro previously) and 4.67 lei/euro in 2022 (4.58 pct). 

The Prognosis Commission maintained its economic growth forecast for this year at 5.5 pct, but revised the nominal value of the expected gross domestic product slightly upwards to 1.031 billion lei from 1.022 billion lei in the winter version of the document. Growth forecasts for the next three years remained unchanged at 5.7 pct in 2020 and 5 pct in 2021 and 2022. 

CNSP maintained its projections for the current account deficit at 3.3 pct in 2019 and 2.9 pct in 2020. 

This year's state budget is built on a Gross Domestic Product of 1.022 billion lei, representing a 5.5 pct increase compared to 2018, an average annual inflation rate of 2.8 pct and a budget deficit estimated at 2.55 pct of GDP (cash) or 2.57 pct of GDP (ESA terms).