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The opposition intends to file a no confidence motion against the Dăncilă Government next week. The enthusiasm generated by the election victory seems to have ceased. Politicians have moved on to the real calculations in Parliament and the negotiations among the numerous political parties outside the ruling coalition.
At this time, members of the opposition parties seem, in informal talks, rather pessimistic. If all non- PSD or ALDE lawmakers vote on the no confidence motion, it would still miss nearly 10 votes. Declaratively, everyone supports the upcoming motion, but opposition pride, personal interests, and double plays could make the task of overthrowing the government even more difficult.
In this context, the National Liberal Party (PNL) has started a campaign to recruit MPs without any visible selection criteria. Things are not prgressing for the moment at the desired pace. Only a PSD MP has crossed the isle and another from ALDE is negotiating. The most "vulnerable" appear to be ALDE MPs. Tariceanu's formation did not make the electoral threshold to the European Parliament and could lose more people.
USR has announced it unconditionally supports the no confidence motion, but does not want to go into government. PMP is also against the Government, but it has only 17 MPs, and some of them are being made big promises to join PSD.
UDMR has announced that it wants to support the no confidence motion, but only if they will be allowed to contribute to the text of the proposal with some phrases about the situation of the Hungarian minority, including the controversial case in the Uzului Valley. With 30 MPs, UDMR can not be excepted from any anti-government coalition for the motion to stand a chance.
Pro Romania is the great unknown quantity in this motion of no confidence. Victor Ponta is opposed to the Dăncilă Government, but the rest of the opposition suspects a double play after the PSD agreed to the establishment of the Pro Romania parliamentary group and even Daniel Constantin's accession to the Chamber of Deputies' position as Quaestor. Ponta has stated several times that he wants to replace Viorica Dăncilă with Ludovic Orban.
PSD and ALDE have 240 MPs out of 465. The opposition needs 233 votes to pass the motion.
But President Klaus Iohannis is still hopeful and is struggling to overthrow the government this spring. The next chance would be in the autumn, when the PSD will have had time to recover from the punches and even organize the congress demanded by Viorica Dăncilă.
