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Remus Ioan Stefureac, president of the STRATEGIC Thinking Group think-tank and CEO of INSCOP Research, presents an analysis of voting intention based on INSCOP Research polls conducted over the last two years and says that the scores of the four main parties - the National Liberal Party (PNL), the Social Democratic Party (PSD), (Save Romania Union (USR) and the Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) - suggest a close competition for the European Parliament election.
According to the analysis presented by Stefureac on Facebook, on Wednesday, PNL had a voting intention of 26.6% in June 2021 and 18% in June 2023, PSD - 30.2% in June 2021 and 28.7% in June 2023, USR - 13.2% in June 2021 and 12.7% in June 2023, and AUR - 14.2% in June 2021 and 20.1% in June 2023.
"The scores of the four main parties are starting to tighten, suggesting a close competition for the European Parliament elections, if this erosion trend of the ruling parties and the rising trend of the opposition parties continue," he wrote.
Stefureac points out that the erosion in government affects the PNL somewhat more because it has been in government the longest.
"PNL loses a little over 8 percent compared to June 2021 (from 26.6% in June 2021 to 18% in June 2023) and two percent compared to December 2021, when the PNL-PSD-UDMR [the Hungarian Democratic Union of Romania] government took office (from 20.1% to 18%)," the INSCOP Research CEO points out.
He also argues that the erosion in government is starting to take its toll on the Social Democrats as well.
"The PSD loses one and a half percent compared to June 2021, when it was in the opposition (from 30.2% in June 2021 to 28.7% in June 2023), and about 7 percent compared to when it came to government in November-December 2021 (from 36% in December 2021 to 28.7% in June 2023)," writes Stefureac.
The INSCOP Research CEO points out that AUR, which has always been in the opposition during this period, although it has had a very sinuous evolution, has risen by 6 percent in the last two years, from 14.2 percent in June 2021 to 20.1 percent in June 2022.
"In the last half year, the AUR has seen a relatively steady increase in voting intention," he adds.
Stefureac points out that USR, which has moved from power to the opposition, is stagnating, with 13.2% in June 2021 and 12.7% in June 2023.
"Since the beginning of this year, USR has started to grow slightly, recovering about 3 percent from the 10% plateau it had settled on in the last half of 2022," he says. AGERPRES
