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The consumer price index will remain above 15% at the end of the year, respectively 15.2%, and will decrease to 8% in 2023 and to 3.7% in 2024, according to the medium-term forecast 2022-2026, autumn version, published by the National Commission for Statistics and Prognosis (CNSP).
For the years 2025 and 2026, inflation is estimated at 2.9% and 2.6%, respectively.
"The inflationary process proved to be more persistent and of a higher amplitude than previously anticipated, so that the deceleration in the growth of consumer prices was estimated to have a lower intensity. In these conditions, the inflation forecasts were adjusted upwards for the year in course and the next two years with about 1.3 percentage points as an annual average, and in the period 2024-2025 it will be around 3%. The forecasts took into account the normative acts in force regarding the modification of the price ceiling scheme of electricity until August 31, 2023, the extension of the fuel price reduction measure by 50 bani/liter until the end of the current year, as well as a relative stabilization of the main international quotations," CNSP points out.
According to the quoted source, short-term adverse effects are expected to manifest themselves for the food component as a result of the prolonged drought this year, but also as a second-round effect of the dispersion of energy product prices.
At the same time, the prices of industrial production, as well as the construction costs, are expected to register downward dynamics, but will remain at double-digit values in the next year.
CNSP emphasizes that the most recent statistical data reveal the fact that inflation recorded an average annual rate of 15.4% in the third quarter, continuing the upward trend from the first two quarters.
"It is worth noting the acceleration of the prices of food products during this period, exceeding the average increase by 2.4 percentage points, although, traditionally, seasonal price reductions were recorded for this type of products. Tempering fuel prices through the regulation regarding the reduction by 50 bani/liter of fuel prices at the pump, as well as the application of measures to cap the prices of electricity and natural gas for the population, contributed to the slight deceleration of the prices of non-food goods, up to 16.4%. At the same time, prices from services continued their upward trend, but at a slower pace, their dynamics in the third quarter reaching 8.2%," the note also says.
