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The Center for Urban and Regional Sociology - CURS has published the data from the most recent survey, conducted between July 8th and July 20th, 2023. According to the sociological research, the national voting intention does not show significant differences compared to the previous survey in May 2023, with the main change being a 3% increase recorded by AUR (Alliance for the Union of Romanians). PSD (Social Democratic Party) and PNL (National Liberal Party) remain within the margin of error, maintaining the majority in a hypothetical future Parliament. After the period of the Ciucă Government, PNL has seen a decline of approximately 5 percentage points in voting intention, while the Ciolacu Government begins with PSD at 31%.
Thus, if the parliamentary elections were to take place next Sunday, the voting options would be as follows:
PSD - 31% (31% in May 2023, 33% in March 2023, 36% in January 2023, 34% in November 2022, 35% in September 2022, 37% in July 2022, 35% in May 2022)
AUR - 20% (17% in May 2023, 16% in March 2023, 14% in January 2023, 12% in November 2022, 15% in September 2022, 12% in July 2022, 10% in May 2022)
PNL - 18% (20% in May 2023, 21% in March 2023, 22% in January 2023, 24% in November 2022, 22% in September 2022, 24% in July 2022, 23% in May 2022)
USR - 12% (11% in May 2023, 9% in March 2023, 8% in January 2023, 9% in November 2022, 8% in September 2022, 7% in July 2022, 9% in May 2022)
UDMR - 4% (5% in May 2023 and previous surveys)
PUSL - 4%
SOS Romania - 4%
PMP - 4%
Pro Romania - 2%
Other - 1%
The rise of AUR is also explained by the perception formed in the collective mindset regarding the political opposition. According to the CURS survey, 24% of respondents believe that AUR is the leader of the opposition at the moment, compared to only 14% for USR. However, these perceptions are distorted by a misunderstanding of the notion of opposition, with a significant number of Romanians believing that PSD and PNL are in opposition
Sample universe: The adult population residing in Romania.
Sample size: 1064 respondents, voters aged 18 years and above.
Maximum margin of error for the entire sample: +/-3% at a 95% confidence level.
Data collection method: Face-to-face interviews at the respondents' homes.
Sample validation: Conducted based on the latest data from the National Institute of Statistics (INS).
Data weighting: The data is unweighted.
Survey period: July 8 - July 20, 2023.
