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Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of CFA Romania Association increases by 4 points in March.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator of the CFA Romania Association increased in March for the fifth consecutive month to 57.1 points.
According to a CFA Romania press release, the indicator rose by 4 points compared to the previous month. This situation was due to the component of expectations, which recorded an increase of 7.7 points, to 53.6 points, told Agerpres.
For 2023, the expected value of the real GDP growth increased compared to the previous year to 3pct and for the state budget deficit expected for this year, the average value of expectations increased to 5.1pct.
Public debt as a share of the GDP is expected to rise to 54pct in the next 12 months, the survey data show.
The expected inflation rate for the 12-month horizon stood at the average value of 8.96pct.
Regarding the developments of residential property prices in the cities, 47.6pct of the participants in the survey conducted by the CFA Romania anticipate a stability of these prices, while the same percentage foresees a decrease in the next 12 months. Also, 81pct believe that current prices are over-valued and 19pct that they are correctly evaluated.
In respect to the EUR/RON exchange rate, 81pct of the participants anticipate a depreciation of RON in the next 12 months (compared to the current value). Thus, the average value of expectations for the 6-month horizon remained below 5 RON for one EUR, at 4.9814/EUR, while for the 12-month horizon the average value of the anticipated exchange rate is 5.0274 RON for one EUR.
"In the context of the positive news coming from the economy, analysts' confidence continued to rise in March, in line with the improvement of economic growth expectations in 2023. Moreover, expectations of a continuation of the disinflationary process have improved, as confirmed by expectations of a reduction in interest rates in the coming year," CFA Romania Vice-President Adrian Codirlasu stated.
The survey has been conducted monthly by the CFA Romania Association for over 11 years and represents an indicator through which the organization wants to quantify the expectations of financial analysts regarding the economic activity in Romania for a time horizon of one year. The survey is conducted in the last week of each month, and participants are members of the CFA Romania Association and candidates for levels II and III of the CFA exam.
The Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator takes values between 0 (no confidence) and 100 (full confidence in the Romanian economy) and is calculated based on 6 questions regarding: the current conditions - related to the business environment and the labour market and expectations for a one-year horizon for: the business environment, the labour market, the development of personal income at economy level and the development of personal wealth at economy level.
Besides the questions needed to calculate the Macroeconomic Confidence Indicator, the survey also assesses expectations, also over a one-year horizon, for inflation, interest rates, the EUR/RON exchange rate, the BET stock index and global macroeconomic conditions.
The CFA Romania Association is an organization of the professional investors in Romania, holders of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title, a qualification managed by CFA Institute (US).
The CFA Romania Association is one of the over 160 member companies of the CFA Institute and has the mission to promote the interests of investment experts and to maintain high standards of integrity and professional excellence. Currently, the CFA Romania Association has 250 members who hold the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) title.
